KEY POINTS:
This America's Cup is going to come down to who makes the least mistakes.
The boat-speed issue is there but it is not the biggest factor.
Going into the next two races, it is going to be about being composed and not making any mistakes.
It will be interesting to see if the protest over Alinghi's use of a man up the mast after race four will have any effect on either side.
Team New Zealand, as they have all the way through this regatta, are sailing really tough. They are hungry, passionate and focused, operating to a set routine and regime. That is their strength. Even when they have been beaten, you don't see any wobbles.
That might be enough to win the cup. Alinghi seem to take their eye off the ball at times. They can look casual. They probably went into this thinking they were going to smoke them. That isn't happening.
It has now been suggested the Kiwis on board Alinghi will team up with Russell Coutts at Oracle for the next cup. Alinghi have got other agendas. I don't know if they are focused and are as together as a team as the Kiwis.
The races Alinghi have won, they have done in classic match-racing style. They have got off the start, won the first cross, rounded the first mark ahead and won. The New Zealand race wins were different as they were a bit shifty, a bit messy with lead changes. They didn't lead from go to whoa. Alinghi made errors and the Kiwis capitalised on them.
What is evident is when Alinghi are ahead, it is hard for the Kiwis to pass. Whereas the other way around, the Kiwis have scrambled.
Team NZ have had two good wins but you can't expect to win the America's Cup like that. You have to win the start, win the first cross, be ahead at the first mark and defend until the end. Alinghi have done that, the Kiwis haven't.
If Team NZ are a little bit slower I don't think Alinghi are fast enough to sail around them.
In the past, Alinghi has been blistering fast. Any mistakes were covered up. I don't think you can cover up mistakes this time.
