They will be focusing on improvement, and one race at a time. This is absolutely the right mind set - the discipline they have shown is admirable.
Despite a 3-0 lead and a clear light wind speed advantage, they must analyse factors that could derail the campaign so solutions are at the ready.
Key Team NZ members led by Grant Dalton and Glenn Ashby have been through close-but-no-trophy experiences, as we all know. They will be primed to make sure it doesn't happen this time.
Here are the risks as I see them and the ways to minimise them.
1. Breakage, breakdown or damage: Risk rating - 2/10
The breakage/breakdown risk is less in lighter wind. However, these yachts still generate a lot of power, speed and loads. There is no redress or ability to have racing postponed if a yacht suffers a breakdown (unless it is caused by a rules transgression from the opponent). So, if the race cannot be completed the opposing yacht gets the point (as long as they start the race). Remember this happened to Land Rover BAR on Day 1 of the challenger semi-final playoffs.
If Team Oracle USA gets into close proximity (most likely in the pre-start) and have right of way they could collide with Team NZ. The sailing rules prohibit anyone causing intentional damage to another yacht, so Oracle would need to be very careful in this regard, The jury could disqualify them if they are judged to have intentionally caused damage.
Consequences: Potentially serious
Actions: Team NZ needs to triple check every piece of Aotearoa every night, and before and after every race. Paranoia about potential breakages is a good thing right now. They must do all they can to avoid being the "give-way" boat in any close contact situation, during the pre-start and race.
2. Penalties from the umpires: Risk rating - 5/10
A two boat length penalty results if a boat breaks the start-line early, sails outside the course boundaries or breaks a regatta sailing rule.
Consequences: Minor (a two boat length penalty is not that big of a deal)
Actions: Sail smart and take lower risk options when it comes to potential penalty situations.
3. Tactical mistakes: Risk rating: 4/10
Team NZ has improved markedly throughout the regatta, resulting in very few mistakes in the first four races of the America's Cup match. Nevertheless, it is difficult to get every decision right. Inevitably, there will be tactical calls which turn out poorly for them. That said, they have shown great composure when they have made mistakes and have the ability to minimise the effects.
Consequences: Minor
Actions: Keep it simple and use the recipe which has worked so well in the first four races.
4. Speed advantage evaporates: Risk rating - 3/10
In the 160-plus year history of the America's Cup the fastest yacht has always won. In under 12 knots of wind speed, Team NZ are very unlikely to lose their speed advantage, but it is possible. Oracle will be throwing every resource they have at it.
Consequences: Serious
Actions: Keep developing Aotearoa's speed. Watch Oracle carefully and understand any changes they make. Use that to make additional changes which negate any advantage Oracle is developing.
5. Pressure from an Oracle come-back: Risk rating - 2/10
If Oracle Team USA gets on a roll and wins consecutive races the pressure will come on. Inevitably, the ghosts of San Francisco will be raised, with Oracle skipper Jimmy Spithill the prime instigator. It will be psychologically challenging to maintain composure in this scenario.
Consequences: Potentially serious
Actions: Focus on improvement, ignore the score-line and any barbs from Spithill.
6. Injury to crew members: Risk rating - 1/10
Team NZ's crew has "clicked" and is sailing with confidence. Any change outside of the rotation of cyclors would disrupt this combination.
They will have planned substitutions for each crew member if they are sick or injured. Cyclors Josh Junior, Andy Maloney and Blair Tuke are outstanding sailors and could slot into other sailing roles without major disruption. At a push, experienced, high quality sailors such as Ray Davies, Rob Salthouse and Murray Jones are available.
Consequences: Moderate
Actions: Keep safe, get plenty of rest, no risky activities and avoid being exposed to any visitors with bugs (the illness kind).
7. Controversy, off-water drama and distraction - Risk rating: 2/10
The America's Cup has seemed to attract controversy, and off the water drama. This can be a real distraction for a team and can cause them to move their focus and effort away from what really counts - making the boat go faster.
Team New Zealand has been really disciplined so far in this regatta and has resisted any attempts to "bait them" into distraction.
Consequences: Minor
Actions: Keep doing what you have been doing, ignore the off-water drama and stay focused on the sailing and improving boat-speed.
So, kia kaha New Zealand. Keep the faith...and enjoy it. Irrespective of the outcome, this has been a fantastic regatta and Team NZ is doing the country and their supporters proud.
By Mark Orams, The Sailing Professor
School of Sport and Recreation, Auckland University of Technology
