KEY POINTS:
With three months to go I'd say Team New Zealand are the best prepared of all the challengers.
The decision to launch their first new boat, NZL84, early was a good one, especially given that the boat is strong.
NZL84 looked pretty good out of the box, it looked pretty good brand new.
It looks like their new boat, NZL92, is very similar. If there were any small things they wanted to alter in NZL84 they would have.
They have had NZL92 out in a lot of wind on the Hauraki Gulf, so integrity-wise it will be fine.
Emirates Team New Zealand managing director Grant Dalton made the comment that you get a boat, it's a good boat and the more you use it the better it gets. There is no doubt that formula works. We saw it with Team New Zealand in 1995 and 2000 and definitely saw it with Alinghi in 2003.
Now you look at American syndicate BMW Oracle Racing and they have taken a different approach. They launched their second boat, USA98, this week, a boat which is completely different from their first, USA87.
Time will tell whether having two radically different concept boats works.
I have my doubts.
The question is, has it come about through an incredibly creative plan or has it come about because they got their butts kicked in the last pre-regatta? I think it's the latter.
The Americans, skippered by Chris Dickson, were fourth after the round-robin competition in the last regatta. In their books that was not good enough.
As a result it has been rumoured USA87 has been altered to the maximum, which is pretty radical.
I think they thought their first boat was going to be revolutionary and a bit of a jump on the rest, but it wasn't. It showed it had some intriguing features - manoeuvrable, quick acceleration - but at times it showed it had a couple of weaknesses, including being tricky to sail.
Their reaction has been to jump into the same design corner as Team New Zealand. The Americans' new boat is similar to Team New Zealand's in that it has a lot of volume in the bow.
That is a compliment to the Kiwis.
If the Americans' first boat is not so good it takes a piece of their armoury away. But because of their funding and resources they will always be a threat.
As far as I know, Team New Zealand have not altered the hull.
They will have settled on the big picture and are now probably working on refinements and minimising the risk of breakdown.
By that I mean they would have settled on what hardware - hull, bulbs, rudder, finn, mast etc - works best and in what combination for the different conditions expected in Valencia.
For example, they might have two, three or four bulbs, each one will be targeted at a slightly different wind range.
I'd say the keel struts and where they are on the boat will be locked in, rudders will be locked in, afterguard locked in and sails locked in.
The area I assume Team New Zealand have put a lot of work into is gennakers.
I thought last year their gennakers were good but there was probably room for improvement, and I am told they have done a hell of a lot on that.
With the Kiwi component we tend to talk a lot about Team New Zealand, Chris Dickson's team and Alinghi but the team that could trip them all up is Luna Rossa.
If Luna Rossa get their hardware together they will be dangerous.
Their helmsman, James Spithill, is the best starter. His starting statistics are brilliant, his first-mark statistics are not very good.
So that could mean he wins the start but is on the left and can't get around the other boat (because you have got to turn to the right at the top mark) OR is simply not fast enough to stay ahead. I think it is a bit of both.
Luna Rossa have a lot to do to catch up speed-wise but if they do - given Spithill's starting - that could be extremely dangerous.
In terms of who will secure the fourth spot, I still think it will come down to either Spain's Desafio Espanol or Sweden's Victory Challenge.
The Spanish boats look good and they have hired American Paul Cayard, which is a smart move. Cayard has sailed in five Cup regattas and won the Louis Vuitton Cup in 1992 as skipper on Italian boat Il Moro di Venezia, beating New Zealand in the process.
It appears since Victory Challenge have secured more funding they, too, have recruited some quality people including top British sailor Neal McDonald and American Morgan Larsen who sailed with OneWorld last time.
ALINGHI remain slick and are obviously still the favourites to defend. But the reality is the Alinghi that you saw in Auckland, in terms of personnel, is slightly different. Russell Coutts isn't there for one and they have picked up quite a number of people.
The other interesting thing with Alinghi is that they have not yet selected a helmsman. At the moment Ed Baird and Peter Holmberg are vying for the job but it has been rumoured top matchracing helmsman Peter Gilmour will sail with the team for a period.
That might create healthy competition but could also be creating tension in the group.
Team New Zealand's decision to select an afterguard early, which I was not necessarily in favour of, appears to have worked and is now one of their strengths.
Luna Rossa and even Dickson's team have their brains trusts pretty much locked in but that is not the case with Alinghi.
* Peter Lester is a yachting commentator and analyst. He has competed in three America's Cup campaigns.
