KEY POINTS:
The objective of the challenger series is to prepare a challenger to go up against the defender and beat them.
Although we have seen challenger series in the past where one team has been completely dominant and gone on to win the cup, like Team New Zealand in
1995, the harder the challenger series is, the better prepared the challenger will be.
Given the front end of this regatta was a disaster, with the wind conditions and the delays, now that we are in the semifinals the teams are getting some good, tough, competition.
There are two schools of thought on that, though. If you win your semifinal match easily, say 5-1 or 5-2, you do get the bonus of saving your equipment and people. You buy a bit of time, which is valuable at this stage.
If you have to fight it out right to the end you become race hardened, but at the same time it is tough on your equipment and your people.
In-house racing is not the same. The challenger series is real. Teams are trying things, altering their boats, briefing, debriefing while under pressure to perform.
Now that the conditions have settled in Valencia, it can be one-dimensional, where one side is heavily favoured.
Because there is little difference in boat speed between the top four teams, if you are behind it will be extremely difficult to get around someone getting first pick of the wind.
Therefore, starting well is going to be crucial.
Luna Rossa's James Spithill is the best starter at the moment. If the conditions are very one-dimensional he is very dangerous.
Team New Zealand's Dean Barker is probably next. He has been going well, aside from the hiccup against the Spanish in race three.
BMW Oracle Racing's Chris Dickson, however, is in a bit of a trough when it comes to starting. But that can easily change.
The conditions will probably even up a bit. In June last year the conditions were a bit more mixed and not so one-sided.
Each time you have a subtle change in conditions the boats look different.
In Auckland the harsher conditions led to boats being more dominant. In Valencia the light winds and sea state tend to have an equalising effect.
You are going to have upsets in this venue, that is just the way it is.
Whichever challenger goes though to the America's Cup match will be match hardened in starting, tactically and positioning wise.
Then it comes down to: have they got the equipment?
We won't know the answer to that until race one. If the challenger is even in boat speed, then it bodes well for them.
