KEY POINTS:
Team New Zealand skipper Dean Barker will be much more of a handful for James Spithill than Chris Dickson was when the two line up in the challenger series final.
Dickson was out to lunch in his starts against the aggressive Australian helmsman and as a result his American team BMW Oracle Racing failed to lead Luna Rossa around one mark in their six-race series which the Italians won 5-1.
With Barker and Spithill you will see more typical match racing set moves.
Spithill will probably be quite aggressive, although he has become moderate in terms of his moves. But if there is a chance for a penalty he'll go for it.
He doesn't throw the boat around the start box, you don't see big stern wash or huge manoeuvres. He has a smooth approach, much like Barker.
Barker is quite structured in the prestart. He also has the ability to trap his opponent. When Barker is in a dominant position in the prestart he is as aggressive as Spithill. He has had two penalties in the prestart during the regatta so will be wanting to take those out of his game.
It will be more of a classic match race between the two and will come down to which boat has their bow in front at the first cross.
Having your bow slightly ahead allows you to control the match by forcing your opponent to the layline on the upwind beats. Once at the layline, the trailing boat's tactical options are minimal.
You might see refinements on the boats to optimise their manoeuvrability and acceleration to get a jump off the line to be ahead at the first cross.
There are only a handful of areas where you can pass. One is at the start, where you can dominate. The next is the top mark. The next is if you are close behind and if it is light, you can put a wind shadow on the leading boat. At the bottom mark gate the trailing boat also has an option.
Pre-empting the weather next week could be a big deal. As it get's hotter, it could get lighter and the wind less dense. That means the boats are producing less power and that needs to be compensated for in the moding and tuning.
Team New Zealand should go into the final with plenty of confidence.
They were always dominant in their semifinal against the Spanish but were upset twice by what was a pretty quick boat.
Getting into the semifinals was Desafio Espanol's goal. After that it was just a celebration and a good time. Tipping up Team New Zealand once was great, twice, wonderful.
In their last race the New Zealanders were in their element and they smoked them, which was a great way to go into the final.
The other semifinal, between Oracle and Luna Rossa, was a bit of a revelation. The fact Oracle didn't win a start, and was never first at any mark in the whole series, is amazing. There were two things that set that up.
The race they lost against the China Team because of gear failure was huge. If they had won they would have been the top qualifier and wouldn't have sailed against Luna Rossa.
The other turning point for Oracle was their loss to Team New Zealand in the final race of round two.
It is believed that created a lot of aggravation in the crew and words were said. They were absolutely hammered by Team New Zealand.
In that race it looked like Team New Zealand used new sails up the beat. They didn't just rock the boat, they sank it. When it came to the semifinals the die was cast for Oracle to come apart.
Luna Rossa's victory was a wonderful win, brilliantly sailed, but there is a question mark about the quality of the team they came up against.
The quality of Oracle by the second race was poor. What the semifinal will be remembered for is Dickson losing control and the team falling apart.
