SYDNEY - America's Cup veteran Dennis Conner has tipped Team New Zealand to hold on to the Auld Mug, if his own Stars and Stripes does not make it to the showdown in February.
Conner, who with Team NZ head Tom Schnackenberg spoke at a Sydney business lunch, also rated the Russell Coutts-skippered Alinghi as favourites to win the challenger series.
Coutts steered Team NZ to victory in the last two cup regattas, but then defected to the Swiss syndicate along with tactician Brad Butterworth.
Conner said Alinghi and OneWorld appeared to have the best all-round yachts. Oracle BMW Racing's boat was "a bit one-sided" with problems in light airs.
"Then there's three or four in the middle like ourselves, Prada, Sweden and Britain that need to find some more speed. "We're not talking about a great deal - something in the neighbourhood of 5s to 10s a mile between a slow boat and a fast boat."
That equated to about a boat length.
"There's still time for people to find, with a combination of rudder and underwater appendages, 5s to 10s a mile."
He expected the challengers' fleet to close up over the coming two months, with those at the front being more conservative about making changes.
"If I had to guess who would win - and it's hard not to bet on yourself - I would put my money on Russell, because he's the best sailor.
"He knows the gulf and he has his buddy, 'Billy' Butterworth."
As well, whereas Team NZ and Stars and Stripes relied on sponsorship, Alinghi was one of seven syndicates funded by billionaires, "so money is no object."
Conner believed the deciding factor between Team NZ and the eventual challenger would come down to which syndicate had the better combination of boat, sails, spar, hull and appendages.
He said most pundits believed the challengers' fleet had had the advantage of time and money to "come up with something the Kiwis haven't found."
But Conner added that he did not necessarily subscribe to that theory.
"If we saw a breakthrough boat out there, it might be different, but there's not that much in it. If I was a betting man and Stars and Stripes was not out there, I would bet on New Zealand to win it."
Schnackenberg said Team NZ were aware that they would need to come up with "a big jump forward" in boat speed from what NZL60 showed last time if they wanted to defend the cup successfully again.
"I can't say whether we have or not. But we've been working very hard and we're pleased with the progress we're making."
Schnackenberg said Team NZ were also happy with the development of their two crews in the wake of the loss of Coutts, Butterworth and others since the 2000 campaign.
"The guys are fitter, stronger and younger than they were last time," he said. "They have less experience, but that's what they are giving each other when they're going around racing, so we're very comfortable with their development."
- NZPA
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Conner picks Team NZ to win
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