Auckland's wind is the Cup x-factor

By Suzanne McFadden

Today is the fourth anniversary of the sinking of OneAustralia.

Let it serve as a reminder of how Auckland's notoriously volatile winds will control the next America's Cup.

Racing in the dress rehearsal regatta was abandoned yesterday when the winds howled up to 40 knots in the Hauraki Gulf.

The forecast for this weekend's final with Team New Zealand is for a fraction less.

Yachting is a sport that hinges on weather. No one can predict how hard it will be blowing in October, or in 12 months' time, and no one can control it. But it is certain to cause huge headaches for the organisers of the challenger regatta.

The day that OneAustralia snapped in half was a freak day in San Diego. The airs were perpetually light there and hardly a day of sailing was lost. It is sure to be a different story here.

A weather buoy in the middle of the gulf has been monitoring wind patterns for the last 12 months.

If the Louis Vuitton Cup challenger series had been sailed this summer, one-third of the days would have been abandoned, either through too much breeze or none at all.

This time the challengers have set themselves a wind limit for racing. They will not start in 18 knots or over, and if during the race, the wind climbs to over 23 knots for a full five minutes, it will be called off.

The defenders, on the other hand, have not put a limit on the America's Cup match. It will be up to the principal race officer, Harold Bennett, to make the call whether to quit racing for the safety of the crews.

"It's a big call," Aucklander Bennett admits. "You can't say now what the conditions would have to be before you called it off."

Out in the gulf it will not only depend on the wind strength, but the tides, the swell and the wave chop.

Bruno Trouble, the French Cup skipper in 1980 who is now Louis Vuitton's cup representative, said the weather would be a major concern.

"We don't know if we need two weeks or three to hold each round of racing," he said. "It's difficult to make plans for TV coverage.

"But at least it makes it exciting. In San Diego you knew when the wind would turn on and off. It did not make very interesting racing. Here it will be great to have different wind conditions."

A decision will be made today on what will happen on the race course, but it is likely that round-robin four will be called off and Italians Prada will go through to the match against Team New Zealand.