America’s Cup: Why Team New Zealand’s campaign over Ineos Britannia is still on track - Paul Lewis

THREE KEY FACTS

• After going down 4-0 early in the America’s Cup match, Ineos Britannia struck back yesterday to cut the deficit in half.
• The start of the race is crucial in this yacht class due to the impact of dirty air and the difficulty of overtaking on a narrow course.
• Racing continues tomorrow morning (NZT).

Paul Lewis is a veteran sports journalist who has written four books and covered Rugby World Cups, America’s Cups, Olympic and Commonwealth Games and more.

OPINION

Fear not, New Zealand. America’s Cup Barcelona 2024 will not be like America’s Cup 2013 in San Francisco when the Kiwis surrendered an 8-1 lead … I think.

There are several reasons for that contention: In 2013, Oracle Team USA ended up with the faster boat; when they made improvements/learned how to sail it better, they were faster upwind – the death knell for Emirates Team NZ.

There are no signs yet that Ineos Britannia is the faster yacht, though clearly they have made improvements/are sailing better. They looked well comfortable in the low wind speeds and especially in the choppy seas often travelling in different directions to the wind.

Though the margins have tightened – excellent for those of us who want to see a competition as opposed to a procession – ETNZ’s Taihoro still looks the faster boat overall. It made gains on Ineos all the way in race five after falling off the foils in the pre-start – though it must be said that Ineos were likely sailing within themselves with that huge lead, concentrating on staying on their foils rather than going flat out.

The Kiwis also closed to a few seconds in race six. So why did ETNZ lose two in a row? Mistakes. As previously noted, the start is vitally important in this yacht class – these huge boats throw out so much dirty air and the narrow, short course means it is difficult to overtake an opponent who gets in front.

In race five, they seemed a little unlucky, with the wind on the port side of the start box dropping at a key moment and helping them fall off their foils – gifting Ineos the race. It must be said ETNZ committed a cardinal sin, turning back into their own dirty air as they tried to avoid a dodgy cross and potential penalty.

In that race, skipper Peter Burling made the call not to cross, despite warnings it could lead to Taihoro losing its legs. Race six, however, was arguably worse – they had the Brits under control at the start but pulled off a poor gybe and got gazumped.

So, advance conclusions that can be drawn from this (with the caveat that things are still not crystal clear yet):

• The Kiwis must cut the mistakes but should win as they still seem to have the faster boat.
• If that “faster boat” contention is right, the Brits need the Kiwis to make mistakes and must sail perfectly themselves to win. On percentages alone, ETNZ must win three races, Ineos five.
• However, among the variables that could sink this contention is the wind and sea state. It was noticeable how much more comfortable Britannia looked in the choppy seas. The forecast for the next racing day is for similar winds and maybe the same kind of chop or residual chop though, ironically, Thursday’s winds were up to about 15 knots.

After (and maybe including) Friday racing (Saturday NZ time), there are doubts about the wind making the minimum limits for racing; there could be delays.

Jimmy Spithill's Oracle Team USA beat Team New Zealand in the 2013 America's Cup in what was one of sport's most remarkable comebacks. Photo / Photosport

Which is another variable – Britannia skipper Ben Ainslie took the mickey out of ETNZ after race six, implying they had a day on the beach while the Brits were working hard, out sailing, working out how to go faster, a goad which also has resonance from 2013 when some felt the Kiwi insistence on a lay day gave Oracle the time needed to make improvements.

Burling, however, seems your archetypal laid-back Kiwi, so much so he is almost horizontal at times. Mind games designed to get inside his head don’t work, as was seen at the America’s Cup in Bermuda – and that after he’d helmed the Kiwi boat in an alarming pitch-pole. That, however, was quickly (to borrow a Steve Hansen-ism) “flushed down the dunny”; he resumed sailing almost faultlessly after that.

Ainslie is well known for his fierce drive and competitiveness – some might call it obsessiveness – but there is another way of looking at that. The New Zealanders will also have been working hard on their boat package and moding and it is not hard to imagine team boss Grant Dalton having some salty words for the sailing crew. You can see more long hours on the simulator, practising starts, in their immediate future.

However, whichever way you look at it, the 2024 America’s Cup Match is now a match, rather than a mismatch.