Team New Zealand during the practice races on the Hauraki Gulf. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Team New Zealand during the practice races on the Hauraki Gulf. Photo / Brett Phibbs
OPINION:
The magnificent AC75 foiling machines go into race mode for the first time today — but not all will be what it seems out there.
Yes, we will learn a thing or two. But accept that you may also be fooled, because there will be high-stakes sneak plays takingplace on our beautiful harbour.
The question many people are asking as Team New Zealand enter race mode in the Christmas Cup regatta is this: Will they hold something back?
Absolutely they will, because there is no advantage in revealing all they have right now. But the tactical masterplan will go well beyond simply not doing things.
Team New Zealand during the practice races on the Hauraki Gulf. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Here is how I believe they will play it.
They will use the regatta to check in on their speed against the challengers, and, yes, they will want to win the trophy.
But there is little they can learn about racing if they roar out of the blocks and win every race by miles, which they have the capability to do with their superior boat.
I expect to see them hit the turbo at times to see if they can stretch their opponent for a bit.
But then they will ease off the accelerator and match their opponent's speed to get into a race, rather than simply blitzing them with speed.
They will also deliberately put themselves under pressure in order to try a pass from behind, or even deliberately incur a penalty for a rule infringement so they can master recovering from that.
I also expect them to simulate a systems failure — such as their on-board communications system going down — so they can practice dealing with that as well.
And who knows what else might be in their tricky playbook?
It's all about the end game, which is retaining the America's Cup in March. No one will care who wins this Christmas Cup.
Team New Zealand's AC75 Te Rehutai in an America's Cup practice race on Course A in the Hauraki Gulf. Photo / Dean Purcell
It's important to remember that the ghosts of San Francisco 2013, when Oracle mounted an amazing comeback after being 8-1 down, still haunts Team New Zealand.
They will be obsessed with continuing to improve, develop and lead, to keep the others chasing. The secret to winning is not to get caught.
This regatta has assumed hugely increased importance because two northern hemisphere regattas were cancelled due to Covid-19.
Grant Dalton and TNZ will be comfortable with progress so far during the informal line-ups and practice racing.
But this is their only chance to truly "check in". After Sunday, the defenders will have two and a half long and lonely months of sailing by themselves before the America's Cup regatta in March.
Here's what will be on their Christmas (Cup) list.
1) Get into race mode. Establish a regular race day routine they are comfortable with. The entire race day choreography must be established. This includes everything from discovering the course selection, weather/wind forecasting, boat set-up, launch and systems (pre-flight) checks, all the preliminary moding of the boat for the conditions, the racing itself, debriefing, media obligations and preparation for the next day. The latter could include repairs and changes/refinements.
2) Learn about the challengers. TNZ may even want to replicate good ideas or routines they see from a challenger, or ensure they can be countered. Find out where they are vulnerable, and what you can exploit in manoeuvres with your own set up and tactics.
Team New Zealand will be keeping a close eye on rivals like American Magic. Photo / Dean Purcell
3) Keep developing their own playbook. TNZ will have loads of moves and counter-moves established after many hours on their simulator. The AC75s are so fast scenarios have to be well established. The Christmas Cup is a chance to hone them, understand what you can of the challengers' style and moves, without revealing everything you have.
Peter Burling, Blair Tuke, Glenn Ashby plus coach Ray Davies and Hamish Wilcox will carefully analyse the challengers' tactical tendencies over the coming days, and in the Prada Cup. Sailing is, after all, often described as a sort of chess game.
4) Keep the challengers chasing. TNZ has the best boat package — the challengers all admit they are chasing.
It's vital to get into race mode over the next four days. But continuing to develop Te Rehutai's speed is also paramount.
Those painful but vital lessons from San Francisco will help drive them on with that.
Enjoy smooth sailing to the Cup with Auckland Transport
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