By CHRIS RATTUE
The promotion-relegation system will be as much on trial as the futures of two middleweight rugby unions in Rotorua today.
The NPC is to have a major review, but for now promotion-relegation is the only route to the promised land for unions who cannot compete with their big brothers in retaining and recruiting players.
Yet the key to their credibility will be for a second division side to show they at least have a chance of upstaging their first division opponents. Otherwise, it will become a lame duck exercise.
Hawkes Bay should mount a real challenge for a first division place when they take on Bay of Plenty at Rotorua's International Stadium this afternoon.
If that challenge falls well short, the legitimacy of the promotion-relegation system is in doubt, because the Kieran Keane-coached Hawkes Bay side have totally dominated their division.
Counties Manukau - relegated from the first division last season - were no match in the final, going down 37-16. On average, Hawkes Bay won their round robin and play-off matches by a touch over 30 points.
If a team who dominated the division to such an extent cannot give Bay of Plenty, who won only once in the first division, a decent run for their money it will provide little hope to future generations of second division sides.
Hawkes Bay say the odds are stacked against them. Keane believes it is a tall order preparing a team for such a momentous occasion when they have already been through a semifinal and final.
Bay of Plenty, who are without their top loose forward Wayne Ormond, have had their own dramas as they fought to avoid going into the promotion-relegation game.
They included the heartache of wing Jason Tiatia dropping a cross-field kick from Glen Jackson, spoiling a simple try chance that would have secured bonus points against Waikato and first division safety.
Hawkes Bay are also angry that the game is not in Napier, and tried to get the New Zealand Rugby Union to give the the second division side home advantage.
Team manager Mark Sowman said:
"We win everything and get penalised; they lose and get everything in their favour."
On the evidence of the second division final, Hawkes Bay will struggle today. There was a noticeable lack of intensity and difference in the speed of decision-making compared to the first division.
Hawkes Bay are also without their classy first five-eighths Tim Manawatu through injury. His replacement, Richard Kinnear, lacks Manawatu's sharpness.
And although Hawkes Bay's forwards rumbled over Counties Manukau last week, their backs lacked penetration.
Kinnear and reserve halfback Jason Bird were able to train this week.
They had thought they would be attending the funeral of their former flatmate Mark Parker, who was killed in the Bali bombings, but the funeral is in Timaru next week.
Bay of Plenty have the class act in this game in first five-eighths Jackson. Hawkes Bay will have to deny him possession so he cannot run the show.
The home side will prefer a fluid game, while Hawkes Bay will be best served by plenty of set pieces. They will start former Canterbury loose forward Matt Mustchin to improve their lineout options.
Two things could work in Hawkes Bay's favour.
The weather has been dodgy, which could make ball retention more difficult.
"If we can retain possession for long periods and put a lot of intensity into our rucks and mauls, we could destabilise them," Bay coach Vern Cotter said.
And referee Paul Honiss can be a picky whistler, which could slow the game.
But Bay of Plenty are a significantly better attacking unit than last year, when they beat Hawkes Bay 32-12 in the promotion-relegation game. It will be a surprise if they do not repeat that success.
Bay of Plenty: Grant McQuoid, Damian Karauna, Allan Bunting, Dale Rasmussen, Jason Tiatia, Glen Jackson, Chris LeLievre; Clayton McMillan, Rodney Voullaire, David Duley, Greg Rawlinson, Mark Weedon (capt), Guy Shepherdson, Aleki Lutui, Simms Davison.
Res: Robbie Simpkins, Taufa'ao Filise, Paul Tupai, David Gorrie; Rameka Poihipi, Anthony Tahana, Sam Hala.
Hawkes Bay: Jacob Kennedy, Ray Karauria, Sam Leung-Wai, Davis Norman, Sefulu Gaugau, Richard Kinnear, Donovan Hall; Mutu Ngarimu (capt), Michael Johnson, Matt Mustchin, Matt Bird, Lua Lokotui, Tom Symes, Mo Schwalger, Peter Bielski.
Res: Danny Logan, Clint Newland, Mark Atkinson, David Gower; Jason Bird, Afa Sauia, Jovesa Naivalu.
Ref: Paul Honiss (Waikato). Kickoff: 2.35pm.
NPC schedule/scoreboard
Up-or-down game tests teams and the system
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