Wynne Gray: Telling Super 15's fortunes

Dan Carter of the Crusaders in action against the Reds at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Photo / Getty Images

Eight teams are jockeying for the Super 15 playoff positions while two, the Lions and Rebels, are trying to avoid last place on the ladder.

Separating those two may be an easier crystal-ball exercise than settling on the leading sextet.

The Lions have a bye in the final round next week so a win this weekend would boost their chances of shifting from cellar-dweller status.

The only problem with that theory is that the Lions have travelled home this week from New Zealand and meet the Sharks, who are nestled in the top six and positioned for a run at the playoffs.

But to the big show and the octet that must be pared down to six playoff sides after next weekend.

The Waratahs and Highlanders are chasing the leading group of six and meet in Sydney tomorrow. It's possible both could miss the finals if they win one and lose their other remaining match.

If pushed to consult the crystal ball, gaze at the tea leaves and spin the dice, the best bet might be that both will miss the finals, leaving the Reds, Stormers, Blues, Crusaders, Sharks and Bulls to juggle their order and shoot for the inaugural Super 15 title.

Of those, the Bulls are perhaps the most vulnerable. They have twin local derbies to finish against the Stormers and the Sharks who lie ahead of them in the points table.

While all six leading teams at the moment are scrambling to remain in that group, the prize for consistent performance is being the top team in each conference. The best teams from New Zealand, Australia and South Africa automatically qualify for the playoffs, those conference winners assured of a finals match at home.

The three remaining sides are those who accrue the most competition points. Predict the conference winners, the boss demanded. Okay, if needs must.

The Reds will be the best of the Australian sides, the Stormers will take out the South African pool and the seven-time champion Crusaders will rise to the top in New Zealand when they beat the Blues - stretching the losing streak for Pat Lam's men to four matches.

If the top six keep their finals berths, three South African sides, including the defending champion Bulls, will have a chance to wrest the inaugural Super 15 crown.

Most of the leading teams are dealing with injured rosters filled with key players as the Reds are minus Digby Ioane, the Stormers have no Peter Grant, the Crusaders are without Richie McCaw and Bulls enforcer Bakkie Botha is injured and on 99 games for the franchise.