One thing is rock-solid certain about tonight's Super Rugby shootout in Dunedin. It's rare to be as dogmatic about a rugby game but the Highlanders and Hurricanes will sort out their differences in fine conditions on a great surface.
For a century of winters that was a doubtful confluence atCarisbrook as the stadium at the foot of the valley on the other side of the city was open to a cast of meteorological invaders. Forecasts about that impact used to occupy significant commentary and previews in the buildup to games.
Those estimates are redundant with the covered stadium guaranteeing great viewing for spectators and ideal conditions for teams to map out their strategies, so now it's a case of working out who wins.
A week ago my loot was on the Hurricanes to do the business against the Crusaders but poor weather and the hosts' ability to use those conditions and rattle their adventurous rivals dusted that investment.
Double or nothing tonight? Too right, give me the Canes again before a chunk of players swap their Super Rugby kit for an All Black uniform and the three-test series against France.
They'll need to overturn the graph which shows the Highlanders on an 11-match home winning streak built on having the best defensive tackle rate in the tournament.
Emotional storylines will populate the run-up to kickoff with Highlanders' coach Aaron Mauger dealing with the death of his mother, assistant Mark Hammett plotting the downfall of his old side, Hurricanes captain and England-bound Brad Shields making his 100th appearance and Gareth Evans returning to play his former franchise.
Run your eye across the match-ups and there's little in it. The Hurricanes have won 10 of 12 games this season and the Highlanders eight of their dozen matches. No surprise they've beaten the Blues twice but they've also taken out the Crusaders then lost away to the Chiefs and Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes' defeat to the Crusaders is their only blemish in five New Zealand derbies. Key performers halfback TJ Perenara and five-eighths Beauden Barrett lost their usual simpatico and control on the game.
They were as competitive as usual but Perenara's game was not sharp and his passing was flawed which reduced the time Barrett had on the ball. Even with a bit of leeway he was not as clinical as he has been for most of the series.
That pair need their razor-edge games to bring the best out of the Canes because as sure as Aaron Smith will be talking the ears off referee Ben O'Keefe, the best distributor in the land and Lima Sopoaga will be guiding the Highlanders around their favourite ground.
From Ben Smith and Nehe Milner-Skudder at the back to Ash Dixon and Ricky Riccitelli up front, there are match-ups to make any rugby follower drool and the All Black coaches just anxious about injuries.
When the sides met at the Cake Tin, the Hurricanes got the most from their pack and a fiery backline with Ben Lam scoring twice in a four tries to two winning margin. That snap has continued until the weather and rugby reality from the Crusaders hobbled their intentions and skills. Too many of the Canes went missing.
No excuses tonight. They've had time to unpick their problems and incorporate their internationals who should be fizzing after listening to the bon mots from All Blacks coach Steve Hansen. This is the Hurricanes' test they must win to continue the heat in the New Zealand conference.
