The stats don't lie: Week 18 preview

Sitiveni Sivivatu has made 13 linebreaks, 18 offloads and over 1000 running metres gained this season. Photo / Getty Images

The final round of Super Rugby 2011, and yet again it will come down to the very last game of the round to determine the final make up of the play-offs.

BLUES v HIGHLANDERS

- The 56 competition points the Blues have going into this final round guarantees them a place in the play-offs, but a win will ensure home advantage in the minor play-offs. To win the New Zealand conference they will need a win plus also need the Crusaders to lose against the Hurricanes. Should the two sides end up on the same number of competition points the Crusaders will win the conference due to having more wins and a much better points differential.

- Key match ups include Luke Braid versus Adam Thomson who are possibly vying for the back-up role to Richie McCaw. Thomson is the second best loosie when it comes to stealing ball at the breakdown with a tally of ten for the season while Braid has just three. But Braid is the better ball carrier of the two having made 21 runs, and Thomson has conceded more penalties with 15 for the season so far.

- Keep an eye on Jarred Hoeata who could be the bolter into the All Blacks with his ability to play at both lock and blindside. This weekend he will be up against Ali Williams, who with 39 lineout wins is the second best ball winner in New Zealand (behind Victor Vito on 40). Hoeata has won 30 lineouts for the Highlanders this year.

- Ben Smith gets a last chance to impress the selectors, having impressed us this season with 12 linebreaks. Top linebreakers for the Blues are Joe Rokocoko with 11 and Rene Ranger with nine. Ranger has also made 20 offloads and has scored seven tries to date.

- The Blues have won 12 of the 17 matches between the two teams, and in Round 11 won 15-10 in Dunedin.

CRUSADERS v HURRICANES

- A "home" game for the Crusaders, and also the first time these two sides have met this season with the Round 2 game called off and deemed a draw after the February 22nd earthquake in Christchurch.

- Some great match ups with Andy Ellis against Piri Weepu, as the race continues for the three halfback berths in the World Cup squad. Both players have recently returned from injury and interestingly are both capable of kicking drop goals, Ellis having slotted two in his Super Rugby career.

- It's a case of the student against the master with Aaron Cruden matching up against Dan Carter. Cruden has made ten clean linebreaks, twenty offloads and scored three tries in his personal tally of 103 points this year. By contrast Carter has made six linebreaks, nineteen offloads and scored two tries in his tally of 135 points. Cruden is kicking at an 80 percent success rate while Carter is at 76 percent.

- Watch the wingers, with Zac Guildford and Hose Gear in great form at the moment. Guildford has made seven linebreaks and scored five tries, while Gear made twelve linebreaks and scored six tries.

- Ma'a Nonu will be wanting to make a point in his last game as a Hurricane. Last weekend he made two linebreaks with one offload and made eight tackles, missing none. Sadly the anticipated clash with Sonny Bill Williams will not take place with Williams out injured.

- Can the Crusaders shut down the Hurricanes' lineout? Victor Vito is the top lineout taker in New Zealand and the go-to man for the Hurricanes, having won forty lineouts. The Hurricanes' lineout is running at an 84 percent success rate while the Crusaders are sitting at 81 percent.

- The Hurricanes have only beaten the Crusaders four times in the 19 matches played between them.

- If the Crusaders win this game then they will assure themselves of a home play-off. If they win and the Stormers lose, they can finish as high as second. Even if they lose they will still make the final six, but wouldn't get home advantage for the play-offs unless the Blues lose and the Bulls and Sharks draw their match.

CHIEFS v REDS

- The Chiefs can't make the play-offs but can play spoilers this weekend, because if they beat the Reds they leave the door open for the Stormers to claim top spot overall.

- One of the key clashes will be the Will Genia/Quade Cooper combination up against the Brendon Leonard/Stephen Donald pairing. Cooper has made 13 linebreaks and 40 offloads, and is the only other player in the competition to come close to Sonny Bill Williams in the offload stakes. However, he also rates highly for missed tackles having missed more than 30 this season.

- Watch Liam Messam, who last week had a huge workrate on defence making 20 tackles and missing just one. He rates amongst the top five players in the competition for the number of tackles made, and also for ball carries having made 43 this season.

- Sitiveni Sivivatu has made a late charge to retain his All Black jersey. He has made 13 linebreaks, 18 offloads and over 1000 running metres gained this season. But he is not in the top five New Zealand try scorers, with Sean Maitland, Israel Dagg, Rene Ranger, Hosea Gear and Jared Payne all ahead of him in the finishing stakes.

Full game stats can be found at haka.co.nz