The stats don't lie: Week 17 preview

Aaron Cruden's match-up with Stephen Donald will be crucial for tonight's clash. Photo / Getty Images

Two local derbies in the penultimate round this weekend, with most interest centering on the Crusaders v Blues in Timaru on Saturday night - the result of which will determine who will top the New Zealand conference going into the final round.

Meanwhile the Chiefs take on the Hurricanes in Hamilton, and the Highlanders travel to Sydney with still a faint hope of making the top six.

CHIEFS v HURRICANES

- Can the Hurricanes put all the off-field dramas behind them for this game? These two sides are playing for the wooden spoon in the New Zealand conference. The last time the two met (in Round Four) the Hurricanes won a close one 29-26.

- Despite this game having no obvious impact on the overall Super 15 competition, there are still individual performances under the microscope. A key one in this game is the match up of Stephen Donald and Aaron Cruden at first five-eighth, who after last weekend are potentially the two players vying for the position of back up to Dan Carter. Cruden is leading the stats with nine linebreaks to Donald's six, and last week kicked at 87.5 percent compared with Donald's 57 percent.

- Another match up to watch is at centre where Richard Kahui and Conrad Smith will go head to head. Smith has made three more linebreaks than Kahui this season, but with both players having limited time on the field this season due to injury they will be wanting to state their claim for a black jersey.

- The Hurricanes' lineout has been one area of their game working well this season, and with an 84 percent success rate they are second only behind the Highlanders in the NZ conference. But the Chiefs locks are very good at stealing opposition ball, so again watch for Clarke McLeod who is the lead NZ lock with seven steals.

- Neemia Tialata will play his 100th Super game. His debut game for the Hurricanes was against the Chiefs back in 2004. It will also be Stephen Donald's 200th first class game.

CRUSADERS v BLUES

All eyes on the battle of the locks, with the four starting likely to be the front runners for the All Blacks this year.

- Anthony Boric has won 86 percent of his throws, has an average of 7.0 ball carries and 24 metres gained per game, makes 86 percent of his tackles and on average gives away 1.73 penalties.

- Ali Williams has won 80 percent of his throws, has an average of 5.2 ball carries and 16 metres gained per game, makes 75 percent of his tackles and on average gives away 1.90 penalties.

- Brad Thorn has won 88 percent of his throws, has an average of 6.8 ball carries and 29 metres gained per game, makes 75 percent of his tackles and on average gives away 1.50 penalties.

- Sam Whitelock has won 100 percent of his throws, has an average of 7.0 ball carries and 24 metres gained per game, makes 88 percent of his tackles and on average gives away 1.20 penalties.

- The Blues have reinstated Stephen Brett at first five for this game, but watch for him to be switched to fullback when the Blues are defending from set piece as his tackle stats are only running at 52 percent this season. The Blues may well be feeling nervous about their defensive line, with Luke McAlister's tackle stats running at only 65 percent when he plays second five eighth.

- The Crusaders' starting backline has made a total of 31 linebreaks this season, while the Blues' starting lineup has made a total of 48. Joe Rokocoko and Robbie Fruean top the respective linebreak lists with 10 each.

- Dan Carter is the top NZ points scorer, yet his 127 points make up just 32 percent of the Crusaders points scored this season. Likewise, Luke McAlister's 115 points also make up 32 percent of the Blues total points scored but unlike Carter all McAlister's points have come via the boot whereas Carter has scored two tries.

WARATAHS v HIGHLANDERS

- The last time these two sides met was in 2010 when the Highlanders won the game 26-10, and it was just the Highlanders' fourth victory in a total of sixteen games played between the two teams.

- The Highlanders are without first five Lima Sopoaga who is away with the NZ Under 20s at the IRB Junior World Championship, so Tony Brown steps back into the no.10 jersey. Brown's goal kicking is running at 63 percent.

- The Highlanders' lineout has been getting slightly wobbly in recent weeks with their 80 percent rate last weekend down on their overall season rate of 87 percent. Top lineout men for them are Jarred Hoeata (88 percent) and Josh Bekhuis (90 percent). Tom Donnelly is absent again this week, and while his lineout takes are running at 83 percent he must be running out of time to have enough game time to push for an All Black jersey.

- Highlanders can still make the top six if they can beat the Warahas, and if the Stormers beat the Bulls this weekend. They would be on the same number of competition points as the Bulls, but would rank above them due to their victory over them in Round Three.

Full game stats can be found at haka.co.nz