The players have been revealed for the Super Rugby final at Eden Park. Video / NZ Herald / Getty / Ben Cummins / Supplied
OPINION:
No matter how much Super Rugby has overhauled its format, fiddled with its rules and seen its member unions play politics, one crucial thing has remained consistent since the first competition in 1996.
No side has ever won Super Rugby without either a world class first-five, or at leasta test No 10 whose greatest year was the one in which his side were crowned champions.
It always has and possibly always will be a tournament in which the quality of the playmaking is everything.
In France, they say the club championship is typically won by the team with the strongest scrum; in England it comes down to the most durable and in the Celtic league it is the team that has the best kick-catch that tends to end up the winner.
But in Super Rugby it is all about the No 10 – proven by the strong body of evidence which supports it.
Look at the champion teams and then look at who they had at No 10. The list is undeniable, starting with Carlos Spencer with the Blues in 1996 and working through Andrew Mehrtens and Dan Carter at the Crusaders, Morne Steyn at the Bulls, Stephen Larkham at the Brumbies and Aaron Cruden at the Chiefs.
When the Waratahs won in 2014, Bernard Foley was at his peak. He was a good Wallaby, but in 2014 he was perhaps more than that.
In 2015, Lima Sopoaga enjoyed the best season of his career and while he was only ever able to be a peripheral All Black, that one year he was in such great form in Super Rugby as to have the national selectors seriously consider taking him and not Dan Carter to the World Cup.
There are two other No 10s who have won titles. Beauden Barrett was the best player on the planet when he led the Hurricanes to their only championship in 2016, while Richie Mo'unga has a solid case to state he was Super Rugby player of the year every year from 2017 to 2021 – in which the Crusaders won five consecutive titles.
Richie Mo'unga of the Crusaders and Beauden Barrett of the Blues. Photo / Getty
That these two will be in direct opposition in the 2022 final creates a reasonably simple means to determine who will win: whoever between Barrett and Mo'unga exerts the greater influence.
There's a legion of analysts who will reject the simplicity of this theory and argue that the usual suspects of set piece and breakdown will be the key battlegrounds, followed by speed of ruck ball, defence and the quality of the tactical kicking.
But just because Eden Park will be littered with test players doesn't mean it's a test match. There will be areas of similarity because the physicality and intensity will be up on normal levels and the speed of the game will ensure half-chances are only fleeting.
A full house at Eden Park will add to that feeling of this being a game out of the ordinary, but it won't be governed by the same factors as a test because so much more action will go through the No 10s and so much will depend on how they use the ball.
Can anyone really see one team scrummaging the other into submission, or being so dominant in the physical exchanges as to win the game through their muscularity alone?
It simply isn't going to happen and what we have is Barrett versus Mo'unga framed as the Blues versus the Crusaders.
Which is why the Blues start as marginal favourites. Barrett has been the most influential No 10 in the competition and is playing as well as he ever has.
Beauden Barrett has been at his best for the Blues this season. Photo / Getty
And Barrett, in the sort of form he's in, can't be shut down at this level, not when the Blues continue use him so cleverly.
They have recognised that Barrett is best used in a mix of frontline and backfield duties and hence have often positioned him at fullback, bringing the sharper passing of Stephen Perofeta into the playmaking role.
The combination between Barrett and Perofeta has enabled the former to roam around the backline and act as a strike runner, without compromising his ability to also be the chief decision-maker.
But the biggest difference between Barrett in 2022 and Barrett in 2016, when he steered the Hurricanes to the title, is that he's now in possession of a smarter and more accurate kicking game and is a higher-impact defender with the ability to make game-changing tackles.
There's also the added dimension that the Blues haven't quite delivered in the last four weeks. They have been scrappy, inconsistent and a little hesitant at times, saved by the brilliance of Barrett and Perofeta and the team's collective resistance.
A better performance is due and a final, against the Crusaders, at a sold-out Eden Park feels like the sort of occasion that will eke out the best of the Blues and one more genius display from Barrett.
It may well bring out more in Mo'unga, too, as he hasn't been at his scintillating best in 2022, but nor has he been far off.
He's proven himself to be a player, in Super Rugby at least, for the big occasion and he's more than capable of producing magical moments that swing the final the way of the Crusaders.
It's just that the way things are tracking, it feels like this is going to be Barrett's final: the night when he and not Mo'unga is crowned the playmaking king.
