But 2025 is not a lost cause for the Blues. Despite appearances, their title aspirations are not hanging by the metaphorical thread, and though they have only won three games to date — none of which have been against teams currently in the top six — the Blues may, in fact, be the second-best side in Super Rugby Pacific.
The Chiefs would probably beat them in any conditions on any ground. But other than Clayton McMillan’s men, who would, in the next eight weeks, be confident about being able to stand up to the physical threat posed by the Blues pack?
Both the Brumbies and Crusaders would say they could because they already have, but both encountered a different version of the Blues to the one that might now see out the remainder of Super Rugby.
The giant is most definitely waking, and the story of last Friday night wasn’t so much about how the Crusaders manufactured their late escape, but why the Blues weren’t playing out the last 10 minutes with an unassailable lead.
For long periods, the Blues looked like their old champion selves. Their tight driving game, supported by a strategically clever offering from Beauden Barrett, enabled them to take up camp in Crusaders’ territory.
It was a night mostly for the Crusaders to endure rather than enjoy, because the Blues beat them up in the collision areas and were also able to steal possession too easily and regularly.
The Crusaders kept themselves in the contest on the strength of their scrum, the tenacity of their defence and a couple of wildly inaccurate rulings by referee Nic Berry for phantom offences.
They held on for the win, but that wasn’t so much because of their resilience and Fletcher Newell’s raw scrummaging power — it was ultimately because the Blues couldn’t find the composure and accuracy that they needed to convert their pressure into the full haul of points it was worth.
And while it was a sixth defeat for the Blues, it came with a warning to the rest of the competition that the defending champions are not as broken as their lowly position on the table and 33% win rate may seem.
This is a team that can still dominate physically, still manage the game plan to play in all the right areas and still, for 79 minutes of almost every contest, look capable of retaining their Super Rugby Pacific title.
The unknown with the Blues is whether they can find that missing minute in the next month and turn the close defeats into solid victories and accumulate the points they need to sneak into the playoffs.
They have not lost the ability to dominate teams at the tackled ball area and beat them up in the collisions. They have not lost the ability to mount relentless periods where they attack in one channel close to the ruck and batter defences into submission.
And they have not lost the ability to kick their way out of trouble and advance up the field in short order.
But what they have lost is that calm and patience in the red zone, which marked their title-winning campaign of 2024.
They are missing that little element of finesse that is required in the last phases of a prolonged physical onslaught: that clarity of decision-making to know when to make one more pass, or plunge for the line, and so, too, have they lacked the accuracy of execution to protect the ball as it needs to be when the defence is at its most frantic.
There will be plenty who believe this loss is permanent: that this is a team that has so far failed to beat any side currently residing in the playoff zone.
But the way they depowered the Crusaders everywhere, other than the scrum, gave off powerful vibes that they are a team on the verge of a powerful awakening.
What’s further promoting this sense of revival is that the Blues’ draw is perhaps going to aid the recovery.
They have five games left, in which they will play the Reds, Force, Drua, Moana Pasifika and Waratahs and while there has been an Australian renaissance, this still has to be considered a dream run-in for the Blues.
Not only does it look the softest bloc of their season, it pits them against the Force and Waratahs, who currently occupy playoff spots.
These two games will be season-defining, as if the Blues win, they will take big leaps towards finishing in the top six. Based on their endeavour in Christchurch, there’s more reason to believe the defending champions can mount a charge now to make the playoffs than there are reasons to say they won’t.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.
