It is, then, a case of both teams having more to lose than they do to win. We just have to hope that doesn't make them too scared to play.
2. Coach under pressure
Damien Hill (Rebels)
Mr Hill can take comfort from the fact that the past three coaches to appear in this column - Hammett, Lam and Richard Graham - won their first games of the season after being put on the hot-seat. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that it could happen here too, with the Rebels at home to the suddenly frisky Force, but they'll need to improve rapidly.
3. Stat attack
This is the time of the competition when trends start to emerge, even taking into account the inevitable variables such as weather and refereeing. We like to think the New Zealand teams play in a positive manner, but do the try-scoring stats back that up?
4. Mis-reading the tea leaves
A premature conclusion to draw from the first month: The Crusaders are a spent force.
Here's a worrying semi-fact for those who think the imminent returns of Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter will instantly right the HMS Crusaders - it has been a long time since Carter has had a dominant campaign at this level. That's not necessarily a slight against the brilliant first five-eighths, who recently moved into his fourth decade of life. He knows how to cut his cloth and saves his best for test footy. Fair enough.
Still, there's just too much class in this squad to write them off after three ragged outings, especially given that the Chiefs and Highlanders played exceptionally. Once they settle into their new home, work out how to get the in-form Robbie Fruean and Israel Dagg (above) more ball and cut down on basic errors, they'll start beating up some teams.
5. Mick's picks
Herald betting analyst Michael Guerin searches for weekly gems:
"Crusaders fans won't get a better time to strike than this week.
"The big boys of the New Zealand Conference have been running on unleaded this season, which has seen them stretch to a very generous $2.50 with the TAB to be the top NZ qualifier.
"They have the Cheetahs this weekend and a favourable draw for much of the season after, mainly playing their toughest opponents at home.
"With Carter and McCaw to return, that $2.50 price could be $1.50 in about six weeks. And NZC leaders the Highlanders have a horror last few weeks of the draw, including the Red, Crusaders, Sharks and Blues away from home.
"As for this weekend, the Brumbies were good last week and get a 3.5 point start at home against the Highlanders in a game they could win."
6. Say what?
"We are hugely thankful to the Government for committing to building a new stadium in Christchurch after the earthquakes closed AMI Stadium. It is amazing what has been achieved in such a short timeframe."
We know what Crusaders' chairman Murray Ellis is saying, but is there any wonder there's a groundswell (no pun intended) of ill-feeling building in Christchurch, when residents still badly affected by the September 2010 and February 2011 earthquakes see around-the-clock resources being poured into a temporary rugby ground?
