Super 14: The final playoff equation

Centre Conrad Smith should be available for the Hurricanes’ must-win match against the Waratahs. Photo / Getty Images

Buckle up for Friday as the Super 14 heads for sudden death on both sides of the Tasman.

New Zealand teams have been involved in the playoffs in each of the past eight years but with one round of qualifying left, all five teams sit outside that leading group.

However, in a quirk of scheduling, the Crusaders host the fourth-placed Brumbies before the third-placed Waratahs are challenged at home by the Hurricanes. The winners of both games should make the semifinals.

But there are all sorts of permutations to consider before the qualifiers for the final season of Super 14 are confirmed once the Stormers host the Bulls in the last match in Cape Town.

One detail is certain. The Bulls have qualified top again after seeing off the Crusaders in a furious final few minutes of a game of high quality and controversy in Pretoria.

Strangely, the second-placed Stormers could still miss the playoffs. They lost yesterday to the Sharks and a final round loss to the chart-topping Bulls could see them tipped out of the last few weeks of the competition.

There is also an outside chance the Reds could slip into the finals action. They would need a bonus points victory against the Highlanders and a raft of other results to go their way.

But the red-hot inquiries will revolve around the opening two matches this week.

The Crusaders are first on to centre stage. They return from three overseas defeats to a visit from the Brumbies who reclaimed senior flanker George Smith and signs of their pedigree in beating the Highlanders.

The Crusaders were within a blast from Marius Jonker's whistle of halting the Bulls' long run of successes at Loftus Versfeld and must now win and rely on other results to continue their qualifying run which began in 2002.

Five eighths Daniel Carter began to show more of his thoroughbred talent as his pack delivered greater sting to their work. But they have to travel home from the republic, regroup and face a Brumbies side which may yet be boosted by the inclusion of dangerous centre Stirling Mortlock.

It would be best if the referees' panel did not appoint Steve Walsh to control this game or the next after he battled through his comeback at Waikato Stadium.

The Hurricanes travel to meet the Waratahs in Sydney in the second match on Friday.

The Canes have won their last four games since drawing with the Crusaders, as they vie for their third successive semifinal in coach Colin Cooper's final season.

That target has become more attainable after a weekend body count.

The Canes should get flanker Victor Vito and centre Conrad Smith back from the medicos' tent, while the Waratahs are surveying some serious damage. They beat the Chiefs but topped the casualty list.

Loosehead prop Ben Robinson has reinjured his arm after having some time out of the game with a cracked bone in that limb, and his frontrow sidekick Tatafu Polata-Nau has suffered some shoulder damage.

The Waratahs' chances of winning on Friday and qualifying for the playoffs will drop significantly if their senior frontrowers cannot front against the Hurricanes' international front row.

What the Kiwi hopefuls need:

* The Hurricanes: Will make the playoffs if they beat the Waratahs. They can finish second if the Stormers lose to the Bulls and the Brumbies lose to the Crusaders.

* The Crusaders: Will make the playoffs if they beat the Brumbies. They could leapfrog the Hurricanes into second with a high-scoring, bonus-point victory.

The matches that count:

* Crusaders (36) v Brumbies (37) in Christchurch, Friday 7.35pm

* Waratahs (38) v Hurricanes (37) in Sydney, Friday 9.40pm

* Reds (34) v Highlanders (17) in Canberra, Saturday 9.40pm

* Stormers (39) v Bulls (47) in Cape Town, Sunday 3.05am

Win: 4 pts; draw: 2 pts; loss by seven or less: 1 pt; four-tries: 1 pt