Super 14: The contenders and pretenders

The Blues hope Stephen Brett can boost their fortunes. Photo / Getty Images

Never mind the drought, it's rugby time again. The Super 14 kicks off this week with Michael Brown and Paul Lewis looking at all the franchises and their prospects.

BLUES (9th last year)

Strengths
Their backline. Really, it's quite outstanding with the likes of Joe Rokocoko, Luke McAlister, Rudi Wulf, Isaia Toeava, Anthony Tuitavake, Rene Ranger, Paul Williams and Benson Stanley. Perhaps only the Chiefs could rival them out wide. Even though the Blues finished ninth last season, they scored the second-most points (339) at an average of 26 a game. Obviously the defence wasn't so crash-hot, which was why they had such a poor 2009.

Weaknesses
The second row. The injury to Ali Williams was cruel on the player but also the coach and he is perhaps the one player Lam really didn't want to lose. Anthony Boric is a 13-test All Black but there are few completely convinced he is genuine class and totally fit. Word on the street says he lacks the killer instinct - something, incidentally, Andy Haden was originally accused of. Boric needs to step up because Kurtis Haiu has not yet convinced at top level in spite of his work-rate and Filo Paulo, the player drafted in to replace Williams, has only one Air New Zealand Cup campaign under his belt.

Opportunities
Stephen Brett and Alby Mathewson can show they are the inside back pairing the franchise has long coveted; Serge Lilo can develop into the ball-snaffling loosie the Blues desperately need. This season is also important for Lam. Last year, he was appointed to the job late and found himself way behind in planning and organisation. This time there is no such excuse and he also has the squad he wants (save the injury to Williams).

Threats
The Blues will want points on the ladder early - they host the Canes first up - and have an interesting streak of away games (Highlanders, Reds and Crusaders) before closing their campaign with a visit to the Sharks, Cheetahs and Lions and hosting the Chiefs in the final round.

CHIEFS (2nd last year)

Strengths
One of the Chiefs' greatest assets is that they believe in themselves, their coach and game plan. This differs from previous years, when they failed to make the playoffs, even though they were one of the better sides. Ian Foster seems to have worked out Super 14. He doesn't panic, doesn't tinker too much with selections and presents a good public face. His side can also park the expansive game plan and rely on good, old passion and guts. Their backline is laden with internationals, exciting and powerful loose forwards and a tight five that has grown to be the equal of most.

Weaknesses
Traditionally slow starters, they lost their first three games last season before a run of nine wins in 10 games propelled them to the finals. The draw doesn't help - with away games to the Sharks, Lions and Force in the first three matches and Mils Muliaina (rest) and Lelia Masaga (shoulder) won't be in the touring party.

Opportunities
If they can win some or most of those first three matches, the Chiefs could be up with the pace. Mike Delany could well become the Chiefs' regular first five-eighths but Stephen Donald will get the first shot, with Delany most likely to sub for Muliaina at fullback. Donald has struggled to convince everyone he is a quality first five who can control games and could ultimately end up at second five.

Threats
The draw has not been kind to the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a terrible record in the Republic (31 per cent) and they finish with three tough games too - the Hurricanes, Waratahs and Blues.

CRUSADERS (4th last year)

Strengths
They have real depth, albeit maybe not with the same level of experience as the 'Canes. However, last year's tyro team now has a year under its collective belt and that could be telling. They have strong back-up in most positions and those two rather recognisable names - McCaw and Carter. The former will be missing for most of the first month but they have good back-up at 7 and the timing is good - their first two games are against the Highlanders and Reds before they take on the Sharks and Blues at home.

Weaknesses
They still look a bit light on the wings - with the exception of new signing Zac Guildford - but this is a quibble of the quibbling variety. Some judges might feel Tyson Keats a better bet at halfback than Kahn Fotuali'i but this too could be a hair of the splitting variety.

Opportunities
Chris Jack will likely miss the first three matches or so with a wrist injury but has a golden chance to get himself right back into All Black locking calculations. So does Isaac Ross - remember him? Wyatt Crockett has the opportunity to rid himself of the stigma of Italy, and Ryan Crotty and Robert Fruean - two promising midfield backs - have the chance to impress before that Aaron Mauger bloke comes home, sniffing a midfield spot for the 2011 World Cup.

Threats
The absence of McCaw, although probably balanced by the "gain" of Carter. They have a tough finish - away to the difficult Western Force, the Stormers and the Bulls before finishing with the Brumbies at home.

HURRICANES (3rd last year)

Strengths
Well, ahem, at the risk of repeating ourselves (and everyone else), this really could be the year... The Hurricanes have a strong side, with depth and motivation - it is Colin Cooper's last year as coach. They also have possibly the best draw of any of the major contenders, especially if they negotiate past the Blues at Eden Park first up. They have the best record of New Zealand franchises in South Africa and will need to do so again this year. Against that is the sad fact that the Hurricanes have traditionally discovered new and exciting ways not to win the Super 14.

Weaknesses
You'd be struggling to call this a weakness but, in a side that has depth and experience in every position, maybe first five. Aaron Cruden has undeniable promise and an instinctive, deft touch but is untested at this level. Willie Ripia has not yet convinced that he can run and win vital matches. Could find them out at the sharp end.

Opportunities
They abound in this side - Cruden, with a World Cup in mind, possibly; locks Jason Eaton, Jeremy Thursh and Bryn Evans all will have noticed Ali Williams' absence; Piri Weepu's chance to win back his All Black spot; Dane Coles, Scott Waldrom and Rodney So'oialo all have something to prove, while Victor Vito and Karl Lowe have claims to stake.

Threats
The Hurricanes' well-known ability to trip themselves up. The Blues at Eden Park. A tough middle to their programme with the Bulls (away), Sharks and Crusaders in successive weeks.

HIGHLANDERS (11th last year)

Strengths
Now there's a thing. The Highlanders look a good bet to do better than last year. Oh, we're not talking champions or anything but they have a more experienced and dangerous look about them this year and could surprise more than a few. They have a solid, much-improved front five, strong loose forwards and a backline with Jimmy Cowan, Robbie Robinson, Ben Smith, Israel Dagg and a new winger in James Paterson who can apparently run like a startled greyhound. Should rattle a few dags (sorry, Israel).

Weaknesses
Well, they are the Highlanders... They may struggle for depth and, if anything happens to Tom Donnelly, Adam Thomson or Jamie Mackintosh, they may suffer, although new flanker John Hardie appeals as a good ball-winner. Other than that, the main weakness seems in midfield where the likes of Jason Shoemark and Kendrick Lynn had good Air New Zealand Cups - but this is the Super 14.

Opportunities
Mackintosh can make this Super 14 the reverse of last year's, when he instantly dropped out of All Black calculations. Josh Bekhuis, at lock, can show his progress and Smith and Dagg can continue their eye-catching upwards curves. As a whole, the Highlanders look the sort of team that might benefit from the new Sanzar tackled ball rulings seeking to encourage bright, open play this year.

Threats
Lack of depth in key positions, always a Highlanders caveat. Tough opening draw - the Crusaders (away), the Blues and then South Africa for the Cheetahs, Stormers and Bulls. That's testing.

BRUMBIES (7th last year)

Strengths
The strongest of the Australian sides on paper, big things will be expected of the Brumbies this year. First five-eighths Matt Giteau and rock-hard flanker Rocky Elsom would improve any side. They have a good front row, depth in the second row with controversial former Wallaby lock Justin Harrison adding to the experience and the excellent George Smith and captain Stephen Hoiles at No 8. Out back, Giteau is an enormous acquisition and fullback Adam Ashley-Cooper is routinely excellent.

Weaknesses
Giteau, Elsom and Wallaby prop Ben Alexander are all injured and may miss one or more of the first rounds. They also look a little light in midfield and untested on the wings and the old war horse, Stirling Mortlock, will want to show he still has it.

Opportunities
Harrison can shake off his cocaine controversy and maybe build a comeback, aged 35, although he will likely be mostly a bench player. Coach Andy Friend has far more to play with this year and could do his own credentials no harm.

Threats
They too have a tough opening sequence - The Force, Bulls and Stormers (all away) and then the Blues away three matches later, meaning four of their first six are on the road. Injuries could sorely test their depth from the opening whistle and they have ageing players. Even with some of the new faces, Mortlock, Smith and Harrison, are hardly pups.

REDS (13th last year)

Strengths
The Reds have recruited well this season. They have a new, proven coach (Ewen McKenzie), new chief executive (Jim Carmichael), new general manager (Dan Herbert) and new recruitment officers (Tim Horan and Dan Herbert). Fans might prefer they had a new front row, back row, outsides and first five but it was essential the Reds sorted themselves off the field before they make progress on it. They still have a handy backline, even though Berrick Barnes defected to the Waratahs, with Wallabies Peter Hynes, Will Genia, Digby Ioane, Quade Cooper (assuming no more trouble with the law) and Luke Morahan.

Weaknesses
The forward pack is hardly one that will frighten the mongrels in the South African sides. Wallaby lock James Horwill leads but the front and back row look lightweight and, if outmuscled, there's less chance the backline will get to show their wares.

Opportunities
Genia has the chance to further cement himself as the country's No 1 halfback. He was taken on Australia's end-of-year tour more on potential than form and rewarded Robbie Deans by being one of the players of the tour (man of the match against England).

Threats
The Reds could threaten mid-table. No, seriously. In the past few seasons they have set up camp in the lower reaches. New coach McKenzie is realistic, saying it will take a "quantum leap" for them to even be competitive in 2010 but they won consecutive preseason games for the first time in living memory.

WARATAHS (5th last year)

Strengths
They have a settled squad, look dangerous at the back and just might shrug off the "boring" tag. Berrick Barnes' arrival will be a big asset, taking over from the talented but erratic Kurtley Beale. With Drew Mitchell and Lachie Turner in the back three, new signing Sosene Anesi could struggle to make the starting XV if coach Chris Hickey decides to play winger Nemani Nadolo - 1.96mand 120kg of Fijian danger and cousin of Lote Tuqiri. Nadolo played a notable role in the Waratahs' 83-15 destruction of a Fiji side last week.

Weaknesses
Lock - they are missing depth and experience here with only Dean Mumm and the injured Will Caldwell having some deeper Super 14 involvement. New faces Cam Jowitt, the former Northland lock, former Emerging Springbok Henrik Roodt and Junior Wallaby Kane Douglas are unproven at this level. They may also struggle at loose forward, particularly if Phil Waugh is injured, and midfield.

Opportunities
Douglas could make steps towards the national team. Nadolo has enormous attacking talent but there are doubts about his defence. No 9 Luke Burgess gets the chance to re-ignite his Wallaby career.

Threats
They have a nasty opening draw - the Reds, Stormers and Bulls, all away - and a tough finish of the Brumbies, Highlanders (away), Chiefs (away) and Hurricanes. Can the forwards do the job?

FORCE (8th last year)

Strengths
John Mitchell must have a thick skin, or a great contract, because it's a surprise he is still coach of the Force. He's there, however, and protagonists such as Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell are not. The Force are reportedly a much happier and more united outfit and that could help their quest for a first semifinal spot.

Weaknesses
You might think winning in Perth would be difficult but the Force don't have a great record at Subiaco Oval. That needs to improve, as does their ability to win close matches. The Force picked up four bonus points for losing by seven points or less last season - two of them by one point - and they would have made the playoffs had they won one of them. They also appear to lack depth.

Opportunities
Young Wallaby James O'Connor could start at first five-eighth after specialist import Andre Pretorius suffered a season-ending injury on Friday night. Former Springbok Pretorius was enlisted to run the team from first five.

Threats
The loss of Pretorius will be a hard blow. The Force have also signed 12 new players and it will take time for them to gel. They also have a tough start (Brumbies, Hurricanes, Chiefs) and end (Blues, Crusaders and then visits to the Lions, Cheetahs, Sharks) to their campaign.

BULLS (Winners last year)

Strengths
Bold prediction - the Bulls won't win this year. They still have, however, huge assets such as lock, lineout supremo and captain Victor Matfield and goalkicking first five-eighths Morne Steyn. They also have, arguably, a good draw until the sixth round, when they begin a tour meeting the Force, Blues, Chiefs and Reds in successive weeks. They are still a seriously good defensive side. But will that be enough?

Weaknesses
Injuries - they have copped it this year with Bakkies Botha out for somewhere between four to 10 rounds, a telling blow. Springboks Wynand Olivier, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Akona Ndungane, Pierre Spies, Francois Hougaard, Dewald Potgieter and Danie Rossouw have also all been affected to various degrees. They also have no Bryan Habana, who has moved to the Stormers. They may have to play a halfback on the wing. Gulp.

Opportunities
Zane Kirchner can push his claims to the Springbok No 15 jersey; Wilhelm Steenkamp can step up at lock; Francois Hougaard, if he can get off the wing, can press his case to be the next Bok halfback.

Threats
The new tackled ball rules strike many observers as being the hardest for the South African sides to adjust to, particularly big, man-handling sides such as the Bulls.

STORMERS (10th last year)

Strengths
Once considered a weakness, the Stormers' tight five is shaping into a decent outfit with power and depth and it could allow their much-vaunted backline to do their thing. And what a backline, strengthened by the additions of Bryan Habana and Jaque Fourie.

Weaknesses
The Stormers have never won a title. They haven't even played in a final. And 2004 was the last time they finished in the top four. Playoffs experience is critical when the silverware is handed out.

Opportunities
Schalk Burger has the chance to prove he is a leader. He has captained the Stormers before but this is the first time he has done it from the outset. His Springbok jumper is under threat from Heinrich Brussow - this might be a way to get him back to where he was. They also have a good draw and the chance to build momentum, with five of their first six games at home.

Threats
Coach Allister Coetzee has said he will rotate players to accommodate everyone and we all know how risky that can be. Bonus points can also prove crucial and the Stormers claimed only one for a four-try bonus in 2009.

CHEETAHS (14th last year)

Strengths
They have ace Springbok fetcher Heinrich Brussow, even though he has been under an injury cloud. Another Springbok loose forward, Juan Smith, is back after a debilitating knee injury and is a crucial player. Injuries have been a worry for the Cheetahs recently but first five Naas Olivier and his deputy Louis Strydom, hooker Adriaan Strauss and centres Meyer Bosman and Corne Uys are key players expected to recover in time for the opening match. Prop Wian du Preez has also returned from his stint with Munster.

Weaknesses
Without Smith and Brussow, should injury claim them again, they are nowhere near the same side. The pack could struggle but the new rules might suit them more than some South African teams.

Opportunities
1. To not be wooden-spooners.
2. To ambush a weakened Bulls outfit in the first game.
3. To adapt better to the new rules.

Threats
They have a nasty opening draw - the Bulls at home and then Sharks away, followed by the Highlanders and Hurricanes at home. After the bye, they go on a tour that reads: Waratahs, Brumbies, Crusaders and Chiefs. Tough stuff. Another threat: they do not seem to have the depth of talent of other sides and have played without direction and composure pre-season.

LIONS (12th last year)

Strengths
They have Dick Muir as a coach. 'Nuff said. They have former All Black Carlos Spencer running the show at 10 after the Blues decided they didn't want him. They have several other well-performed backs: Earl Rose, lightning winger Tonderai Chavanga, the nimble Dusty Noble and some hardened forwards such as Jannes Labuschagne and Cobus "Baywatch" Grobelaar, the captain.

Weaknesses
Again, a lack of real quality right throughout the side, which is not to say they won't claim some surprise scalps. Spencer can be a genius but it will be interesting to see whether his years in the British game have made him a strength or a weakness. They have looked ordinary in pre-season games, losing 42-12 to the Bulls. Halfback Jano Vermaak, leading try scorer last year, will miss the opening matches through injury. Not good.

Opportunities
Avoiding the wooden spoon.

Threats
They have perhaps the worst tour itinerary in the Super 14 this year - after playing the Stormers and Chiefs at home, they go on the road against the Hurricanes, Brumbies, Waratahs, Crusaders and Highlanders in successive weeks. Phew.

SHARKS (6th last year)

Strengths
The three-time runners-up are stacked with Springboks, including John Smit, Tendai Mtawarira, Bismark Du Plessis, Ryan Kankowski, JP Pietersen and Ruan Pienaar, suggesting they have the squad to win a first title. They also have passionate home support.

Weaknesses
The Sharks have that unwanted tag of chokers. They were everyone's pick after they won six of their first seven last season, including three of four in Australia and New Zealand, but fell away alarmingly. They did it again in the Currie Cup, easily topping the round robin before falling to the Cheetahs in the semifinals. Expectations are always high in rugby-mad Durban. Patience, though, could be running out.

Opportunities
Whoever gets handed the No 10 jersey. The season-ending injury to Argentinian first five Juan Martin Hernandez has opened up a chance Steve Meyer, Monty Dumond and even Ruan Pienaar.

Threats
Their road trip is daunting - the Crusaders, Waratahs, Brumbies, Highlanders and Hurricanes - meaning they could be left having to win all of their home games. John Smit will also need to be managed carefully. He has been playing non-stop since the 2007 World Cup but has won back the captaincy to add to his workload and already looked tired in pre-season.

IMPROBABLE PREDICTIONS
Paul Lewis and Michael Brown hereby pledge to review these predictions at the end of the round robin of the 2010 Super 14. Readers are invited, nay encouraged, to stir the pot if - as is likely - these two are well off beam in the difficult job of predicting who will finish where in the Super 14.

Paul Lewis' picks
1 Hurricanes
2 Crusaders
3 Brumbies
4 Blues
5 Stormers
6 Waratahs
7 Bulls
8 Chiefs
9 Highlanders
10 Sharks
11 Force
12 Reds
13 Cheetahs
14 Lions

Michael Brown's picks
1 Crusaders
2 Brumbies
3 Stormers
4 Chiefs
5 Hurricanes
6 Bulls
7 Blues
8 Waratahs
9 Force
10 Sharks
11 Highlanders
12 Reds
13 Cheetahs
14 Lions