Super 14: Meet the competition's unlucky 13

If the Reds blow their lottery-winning draw, book them in for the wooden spoon. Photo / Getty Images

Triskaidekaphobics, look away now. There will be 13 franchises bemoaning their bad luck come the end of May, but in reality many of them kick off this weekend without a hope in the High Veld of winning a title.

Thirteen mournful and brow-beaten captains, 13 coaches wondering how hot their seat will become in the off-season.

Thirteen sets of fans wondering whether next year will be better than the one they've just witnessed.

Thirteen losers, 13 compelling reasons why.

REDS

Because they have the weakest squad in the competition, a coach who hardly covered himself in glory while tutoring Stade Francais and a talented first five-eighths who is as likely to nick your stuff (allegedly) as he is to nick you five points.

The Reds have been handed a lottery-winning draw, getting three home games in subtropical conditions, but the opposition - the Waratahs, Crusaders and Blues - are no mugs. If they start 0-3, book 'em in for le cuillere en bois, aka the wooden spoon.

LIONS

Because they are viewing this as the first step in a medium-term project.

Dick Muir has been brought on board to guide the project and Carlos Spencer will bring his innovative ways to the traditional stodge served up by the Lions, but don't expect the results to start coming until the later rounds, particularly with a five-week road odyssey beginning in week three that looks for all money like a classic 0-5 trip.

WESTERN FORCE

Because they're seriously considering starting Mark Bartholomeusz, the journeyman's journeyman, at first five-eighth.

A decent footballer and all, but is he going to lead the Force around the track with enough dexterity to match the best teams? No.

With Matt Giteau upping sticks and his replacement, South African Andre Pretorius, hamstrung for the season, it demonstrates perfectly the fragility of the Perth-based squad.

CHEETAHS

Because an all-round lack of class - outside the loosies that is - will see them pull off the odd upset, but will not allow them a realistic tilt at the title.

At least this year, with the Bulls visiting Bloemfontein in the early hours of tomorrow, the Cheetahs will not again suffer from the most egregious piece of scheduling in Super rugby's short history.

Last year, the Cheetahs had to wait until week eight to play at home, before promptly hitting the road again for week nine.

HIGHLANDERS

Because that whole taking the cast-offs from around the country schtick might have worked for Otago's short-format cricket sides but it's never going to work in Super rugby.

The unloved and (as far as the Dunedin locals seem to be concerned as their crowd numbers plummet) unlovable franchise often punch above their weight. But really, is that what Super rugby is meant to be about? Plucky underdogs are best left for the Air New Zealand Cup.

SHARKS

Because they have lost ground on their South African counterparts such as the Bulls and the potentially dangerous Stormers.

Their big-name signing, Juan Martin Hernandez, is somewhere on the Pampas recovering from a back injury. Although eightman Ryan Kankowski can be impressive, overall their loose trio looks a little overmatched against the best teams.

A huge match first up against the Chiefs.

BLUES

Because, when all is said and done, there are just too many average players in their squad of 28 to be truly competitive. With a fit Ali Williams, the Blues first XV looked just fine.

But like an iceberg in the Southern Ocean, it's what lies beneath that is the concern. Williams is a huge loss.

A second row of Anthony Boric and Kurtis Haiu, with back-up from Filo Paulo, does not have the same ring to it as, say, Matfield-Botha-Rossouw, or Thorn-Ross-Jack.

CHIEFS

Because on talent alone they should be starting the season 3-0, at worst 2-1, but we have a sneaking suspicion they'll return home to play the Reds in week four with a losing record.

While we're on sneaking suspicions, if the Chiefs just dip out on the playoffs, which we're tipping them to do, how popular is the decision to rest Mils Muliaina for the first three weeks going to be? How about, "not very".

STORMERS

Because it is a stretch to suggest the perennial underachieving Cape Town franchise are going to turn into title winners on the basis of Bryan Habana and Jaque Fourie's acquisition. Expect them to feature strongly in the first half, becoming everybody's trendy pick for the semifinals, before fading like a pair of blizzard-wash jeans.

HURRICANES

Because unless numbers four to eight play above themselves, it is hard to see the talented backline getting enough pill to play with against the best forward packs. Step forward Victor Vito.

He is the wildcard that can turn the second and back rows from workmanlike to something slightly more than workmanlike. Colin Cooper is going back to the heartland without a title, unfortunately.

WARATAHS

Because this year is always their year - yet it never is. On paper there is no reason why the Waratahs should not seriously contend.

What looked like a serious weakness at the crucial No 9-10-12 backline axis has been shored up by the arrival of Berrick Barnes from Queensland. If he gets injured, big trouble.

Still a suspicion the Waratahs lack out-and-out toughness in the tight five to win it all.

BULLS

Because we are told their ruthlessly efficient, yet stultifying brand of rugby will not cut the mustard in this year's razzle dazzle Super 14.

Still, they have a great pack and a luxurious draw that should see them in contention, if nothing else. It's dangerous to write off any team with Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez, but that's what we're doing.

BRUMBIES

Because they'll be beaten by a team with no discernible weakness in the final.

The Brumbies look brimful of talent and experience this season and the return of Matt Giteau, after a lucrative but ultimately empty look west, marks them down as one of the pre-tournament favourites.

Serious questions will be posed, however, if one of their starting props, or halfback and first five-eighth, succumb to injury.