Rugby: You do the numbers

The Chiefs made the most clean breaks with the ball - 9.3 per game on average, and having an elusive backline, including Tim Nanai-Williams, has helped. Photo / Getty Images

Despite failing to lead key performance stats, including possession, Chiefs have made little go a long way

Here it is in black and white: during the regular season the Chiefs won the least amount of possession of any other Super 15 team.

On average, Dave Rennie's men enjoyed the use of the ball for 13 minutes 53 seconds per game. Yes, they were even worse at holding on to it than the Kings (14m 03s), the newcomers from South Africa who are on the brink of dropping out of the competition in favour of the Johannesburg-based Lions. Just how, then, have the Chiefs come to stand on their own brink - that of consecutive titles?

As converts to the Moneyball theory of statistics-based research driving the recruitment of their players, it should have been enough to make Rennie, Wayne Smith and co break out in cold sweats. The best team at retaining possession, remarkably, were the Highlanders with 17m 24s. As potentially damning figures go for the Chiefs, possession was not the only one.

They have statistically the worst lineout in the competition, a stat that also has a bearing on possession. The Chiefs won only 79 per cent of their own lineout ball (the Bulls were the best with 90 per cent) and managed only a modest 1.3 steals per game.

None of their players lead the key performance categories of tackles made, clean breaks, or metres run with the ball and so on. Aaron Cruden features in two - he was the second best in terms of try assists with 11 (Waratah Bernard Foley was top with 13) and was the fourth-equal best offloader with 26 (way behind Quade Cooper with 54). Sam Cane was the fourth-best tackler with 196 (missing 15). Cheetahs loose forward Pieter Labuschagne made an extraordinary 237 tackles, missing only 11.

Back to that question, then - how have the Chiefs done so well with so little ball? The key to their success has been largely due to what they have done with the ball, and what they have done without it.

They made the most clean breaks with the ball - 9.3 per game on average, and having an extremely elusive backline has helped. In Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Aaron Cruden, Lelia Masaga, Asaeli Tikoirotuma, Bundee Aki and Tim Nanai-Williams they have some of the most dangerous attacking players in the competition. The try scored by Nanai-Williams in February against the Highlanders in Dunedin, in which he received the ball from a midfield scrum and scored without being touched (after dodging All Black Ma'a Nonu), will live long in the memory.

The other statistic the Chiefs coaches like is one of work rate - how quickly do they get off the ground to make another tackle, how desperate are they to scramble back in defence? Cruden personified the heart in this team when he raced back in the recent semifinal against the Crusaders when Ryan Crotty looked likely to score.

They also bounced back from disappointing performances well. They tended to win the important games. They dropped off mentally against the Rebels in Melbourne, almost losing after building a large lead, and looked lethargic against the Blues at Eden Park despite the home team being a man down for most of it after Culum Retallick's red card. They weren't there against the Crusaders in Christchurch either. The ultimate response, and the ultimate statistic - the final 20-19 scoreline - came in Hamilton last weekend.

But to paraphrase Brad Pitt's character, the Oakland A's GM Billy Beane, in the Moneyball movie: "If you lose the last game of the season, nobody gives a damn."

Average points per game (NZ teams only)
Chiefs 28.6 (best in comp)
Crusaders 28.5
Hurricanes 24.1
Highlanders 23.4
Blues 21.7
(Best of the rest: Bulls 28)

Average tackles per game (NZ only)
Chiefs 131.4
Crusaders 126.4
Highlanders 122.4
Blues 121
Hurricanes 110.4
(Best of rest: Kings 133.3)

Average possession in minutes per game (NZ only)
Highlanders 17m 24s (best in comp)
Crusaders 17m 14s
Hurricanes: 16m 41s
Blues: 15m 41s
Chiefs: 13m 53s (worst in comp)
(Best offshore team: Reds 17m 14s)

Top offloads
1. Quade Cooper (Reds) 54
2. Israel Folau (Waratahs) 36
3. Luke Braid (Blues) 32
4. Ben Smith (Highlanders) 26
4. Aaron Cruden (Chiefs) 26

Top try assists
1. Bernard Foley (Waratahs) 13
2. Aaron Cruden (Chiefs) 11
3. Colin Slade (Highlanders) 10
4. James O'Connor (Rebels) 8
4. Francois Hougaard (Bulls) 8

Top tackles
1. Pieter Labuschagne (Cheetahs) 237
(11 missed)
2. Matt Todd (Crusaders) 218 (13)
3. Wimpie van der Walt (Kings) 209 (7)
4. Sam Cane (Chiefs) 196 (15)
5. Phillip Van Der Walt (Cheetahs) 193 (11)

Turnovers
1. Robert Ebersohn (Cheetahs) 30
2. Liam Gill (Reds) 22
3. Luke Braid (Blues) 20
3. Rene Ranger (Blues) 20
5. Deon Fourie (Stormers) 19

Statistics sourced from Opta.