Rugby: Win or bust is not the way

On one hand it appears New Zealand's Super 14 coaches have become campaign savvy. On the other, it could be they have simply lost the plot.

Take the Blues and their decision to start Tony Woodcock on the bench last week in Pretoria. Loftus Versfeld provides the most brutal challenge. The Bulls pack are not exactly dainty, or careful about where they stand.

To not play Woodcock from the start is a little difficult to understand. Was it the confused thinking of a rookie coach trying something supposedly clever but clearly daft, or was it proof that finally, New Zealand sides have cottoned on to the need to pace themselves?

The traditional New Zealand way has been for franchises to see every game as a potential victory. To pick their strongest available side and only rest the big names when someone feckless like the Cheetahs or Lions comes along.

Maybe what we saw from coach Pat Lam was a new approach that alluded to the Blues treating the Bulls as an opponent they were never going to beat.

With some key players in Auckland waiting for waters to break and backs to mend and captain Keven Mealamu hopping around on a dodgy leg, what chance did the Blues have of achieving victory in Pretoria?

Not great, so did we see the war become the main objective and not the battle?

The Bulls may well go unbeaten at home this year. When a side can lose Victor Matfield and call up Danie Rossouw, they have to be taken seriously.

"A lot of our guys were playing at altitude for the first time," said Lam of the game at Loftus. "They [Bulls] are a master team at altitude. They have a certain plan - they kick about 400 metres more than any other team."

While Lam is not suggesting the Blues ran out waving a white flag, he is stating the reality of what they faced.

This was a game they could walk away from knowing they did well to take a point.

"The competition is not lost in one game," said Lam.

The Blues were handed a tough opening three weeks - Force, Bulls and Stormers on the road. They then have to face the Sharks in Auckland in round four, just five days after arriving home.

The question the Blues had to ask was whether four wins was realistic. History would have shown them it is rare for New Zealand franchises to clean sweep on their major away leg. They would also know most New Zealand teams struggle in their first game back as a result of the travel and shorter turnaround as a consequence of the time difference.

The South African sides, who are lumbered with the burden of longer road trips, have for some time been adept at picking and choosing which games they believe they can win.

Most African sides have written off their chances of beating the Crusaders in Christchurch. They tend to pick weakened teams, conceding before the game starts that they have smaller fish to fry.

On a four-game Australasian tour, the Bulls, Stormers and Sharks would settle for two wins and a couple of bonus points. They manage their road trips with that goal in mind.

The Blues have a victory in the bag from Perth and they will see the Sharks game as a clash they have to win.

The intriguing game is this morning's as with Jerome Kaino, Joe Rokocoko and Taniela Moa back on deck, Lam clearly sees the Stormers at sea-level as a realistic prospect to knock over.

The Stormers are a team the Blues have targeted and their selection highlights that. Lam

agreed he had picked his strongest available team. Woodcock has been restored and the back row is the most experienced trio the Blues could muster

.

There was some consternation last weekend after the Blues were hammered, and the Crusaders and Chiefs were both pipped by Australian teams. But there needs to be an appreciation that this is a tournament all about momentum.

Other than the 2002 unbeaten Crusaders, no side has ever put their foot down in week one and kept it there until the final. There has to be some concession made to the pace, travel and brutality of the tournament.

Campaign management is an art few New Zealand coaches have mastered. There has been this failure to realise you can't win them all, that there are times when it makes sense to shift the big guns to the bench, to keep their powder dry for an opponent they can blitz.

The magic number of points needed to qualify for the playoffs in previous Super 14s has ranged between 38 and 42. That allows for a few games to be dropped.

This is a point All Black coach Graham Henry has tried to stress in recent seasons. He has argued that Super 14 teams can't win the competition by using the same players every week. There has to be some rotation so sides can be fresh when they really need to be.

Henry has urged this partly for his own selfish reasons of protecting All Blacks, but also because he believes it would improve the chances of New Zealand teams making the playoffs.

And he will continue to make the point as long as the All Blacks are afforded only a six-week pre-season and then are asked to front for 13 weeks on the trot during Super 14.

"I don't think the players are soft at all," said Henry. "They do a huge job - they play for 10 months of the year and it's a very physical game.

"The game has changed. There's a lot more physical contact, there are bigger people and they run at greater speed.

"I still think there is a need for the right pre-season," said Henry, "so the guys can play top rugby at the right time."