Rugby: Super 14 semifinals breakdown

Chiefs first-five Stephen Donald has had an impressive Super 14, but can he dominate a finals series? Photo / Alan Gibson

The Chiefs, Hurricanes and Crusaders will contest the Super 14 semifinals . Gregor Paul looks at how these three teams became top four contenders and whether they have what it takes to go all the way.

CHIEFS

The five keys to their campaign
1. The second-half comeback against the Lions in round eight was not only impressive, it was critical in terms of keeping the momentum and also convincing the players, fans and future opponents they were a different beast.

They were 29-10 down with 25 minutes to go, yet there was no panic. The control and execution was outstanding and the players came off the field knowing they had the strength of character to not wilt under pressure.

2. The tight five were rotten in the first two weeks, turning in one of the worst displays in Super Rugby history against the Waratahs. A rocket from Keith Robinson, some soul searching from the players and the Chiefs front five have been one of the best in the competition ever since. They have won the collisions, been tidy at the lineout and solid in the scrum.

3. In an age when there is an obsession with squad management, Chiefs coach Ian Foster has cleverly kept his combinations intact for most of the competition and tinkered only at the edges. His halfbacks, midfield, locks, back three and loose forwards have been given time to gel, to work in partnership. The quality of their contribution is as much about their cohesion as it is their individual component parts. Under pressure against the Hurricanes, the units all held up well - there were no misunderstandings or defensive failings.

4. It's common for coaches to bemoan that their side created plenty but finished little. The Chiefs have been ruthless in their execution. They had four opportunities to score in the first half against the Blues and took them all. They played like that in the second half against the Lions and also against the Reds. That quality is priceless in finals football, where games are tight and passes must be inch-perfect.

5. Of all the New Zealand franchises, the Chiefs have the worst record in South Africa. They are still tracking at a 31 per cent success ratio in the Republic. This year, they took 11 from 15 points - not cause for suggesting they have turned a corner but the win in Cape Town in particular kept them in the mix.

The key player was... SIONE LAUAKI
It's been as simple as this - when Lauaki has played well, the Chiefs have played well. The big No 8 was discarded by the All Blacks last season and told to improve his conditioning and work-rate. He's done that. He started the season, for once, fully fit and has made his presence tell. He gets the Chiefs going forward and builds momentum.

The key player will now be... BRENDON LEONARD
Everyone knows the Chiefs want to attack the wide channels. That makes them predictable and allows defences to drift early. What Leonard does is snipe around the fringes and force opponents to man the inside channels until the danger has passed.

Have they got what it takes to win?
History tells us no. It doesn't feel right backing the Chiefs. But history has to be put to one side and current form used as the more accurate barometer. Yes, they can win, even if they have to go to South Africa to do it.

What we know
We know the tight five is good enough to win ball and stay tough in the contact zones, despite their wobbly half hour against the Brumbies. We know the loose trio is nicely balanced and that Lauaki can get them going forward. We know the back three are deadly - they are in form, work well together and can score tries from turnover ball and half-chances. We know centre Richard Kahui is a class act who can tackle hard and keep the defence structured. We have also seen the Chiefs win in different ways this season. They threw the ball wide and played fast to beat the Blues and Reds, while they had to arm-wrestle the Hurricanes and Highlanders.

What we don't know
Stephen Donald has been slowly working his way into form. He scored an impressive solo try against the Hurricanes. We don't know, however, if he can dominate a finals series. Can he underpin his performance with tactical acumen while providing that little spark of magic?

In a sense, Donald is the micro study that could allude to the macro picture. The Chiefs have a base of general experience. They don't have a base of specific experience in knockout football. Only Mils Muliaina (with the Blues in 2003) and Lauaki (with the Chiefs in 2004) have ever been here before.

From where can they draw inspiration?
The Chiefs' playoff pedigree is almost non-existent. One lousy semifinal appearance in 2004 is all they have. So they can't look back for great Super 14 triumphs. However, many of this squad were involved with Waikato in 2006 when they won the Air New Zealand Cup.

The keys to their success in the finals series back then were aggressive defence, supreme fitness and, most importantly, the confidence to continue playing their natural game.

The Chiefs have to remember Foster has given them the right game plan. If they believe in it, they can beat anyone.

One final thing they must do - ride the crowd. Waikato Stadium can be intimidating. Muliaina said last week his team were swept along by the noise and passion.

HURRICANES

The five keys to their campaign
1. The late, late dramatic victory in Perth. The Hurricanes were looking at returning from South Africa with just five points. That would have left them a long way back and short of confidence. Somehow, they overturned a 13-point deficit in the last five minutes against the Force with two incredible late tries. When you escape like that, you can't but help feel it is going to be your year.

2. Their strength in depth has been impressive and allowed them to cover seamlessly for injuries. In their loose forwards, Karl Lowe and Faifili Levave have both slipped in and out of the side and played well. Victor Vito then stepped in towards the end of the round-robin and has looked at home. David Smith couldn't get a game at first and now it will be harsh to see him dropped for the recovered Hosea Gear. Injuries have not been able to rob the side of anything.

3. The Ma'a Nonu-Conrad Smith partnership has taken another big step towards being a world-class pairing. These two have played a lot of football together now and their understanding of each other has enabled the Hurricanes to push the ball wide, as well as work angles through the middle. Smith is also one of the few players who can consistently bring out the best in Nonu. And at his best, Nonu has shown again he can break any defence.

4. The table gives a clear indication of how much pace the Hurricanes play with. Prior to last night's game, they had scored 343 points - the highest in the competition. That's an average of almost 29 points per game. If you were coaching a side to play them, you would have to find a strategy likely to score you 30 points.

5. The Hurricanes don't do slumps. They are a bounce-back side. That has frustrations but also means, critically, they don't dwell on defeats. They opened their season with a home loss to the Waratahs when they were fairly awful. They bounced back, though, with two good wins against the Highlanders and Crusaders. They were poor against the Sharks and followed that with the dramatic escape in Perth, then three big home wins.

The key player has been... TAMATI ELLISON
The Hurricanes were in a lull in the early weeks. Then Ellison shifted to fullback to cover for the injured Cory Jane. He gave them incision, confidence and tries at a critical time. He gave them belief, too, and has continued to show his class by switching to the wing or midfield when needed.

The key player now will be... WILLIE RIPIA
It would be a surprise to see coach Colin Cooper revert to using Piri Weepu at No 10. The All Blacks halfback needs to be in his favoured role because that's where he is of most value to his side. It's also where he works the forwards into better body positions and has them crashing close to the breakdown where they make good yards. That means Ripia is going to have to prove he has what it takes to run a game at this level.

Have they got what it takes to win?
On paper, they have the strongest squad and the greatest depth. But they have a proven track record of coming close and thinking that is enough. There were further signs of their vulnerability under pressure against the Chiefs where they couldn't impose themselves. They also blew a golden try-scoring opportunity in the last five minutes and let their discipline slip - another sign they were rattled under pressure.

What we know
On their day, the Hurricanes are too good for everyone. When they drilled the Brumbies a few weeks ago, the rest of the competition knew they, too, would have been done over had they struck the 'Canes in such rampant form. We know they have a capable tight five and that Andrew Hore is the master at stealing ball from anyone who hits the contact too high. We know Jason Eaton and Jeremy Thrush are mobile enough to add their weight at the collision and support a backrow that would be the quickest and fittest in Super 14. We also know Smith and Nonu are the best pairing in the business and that Jane is a quality operator.

What we don't know
We don't know whether the Hurricanes have the passion, desire and intensity to finally be the bride. They have been perennial semifinalists but have never convinced. We don't know if they can handle the pressure.

We don't know if Ripia is good enough. Can he kick his goals under pressure? Can he play Nonu and Smith into the game?

We also don't know whether the Hurricanes have the discipline for finals football. They are a free-flowing side. They like the game to be open and fast. Finals football is not normally loose. Space will be at a premium. Results will have to be ground out and that doesn't suit the mentality of many of the Hurricanes players.

From where can they draw inspiration?
They are in danger of being tagged as chokers. They were semifinalists in 2003, '05 and '08 and finalists in 2007. Many of the squad have also been part of a Wellington side that lost provincial finals in 2003, '04, '06 and '08.

The time has come for the Hurricanes to make a decision: do they believe it is enough to make the final four? Can they be content with what they have already achieved? Or do they understand that to build a legacy, to leave a footprint, they must win a title?

CRUSADERS

Five keys to their campaign
1. An indefatigable spirit. The Crusaders were in real trouble after they drew at home with the Force in round five. That left them reeling after defeats to the Hurricanes, Highlanders and Brumbies. Their injury toll was high, they didn't have Richie McCaw and yet they dug in to win games few thought they could.

2. Beating the Waratahs in Sydney. There was a feeling that game could have turned ugly for the defending champions. It followed the draw with the Force and Sydney is not an easy ground at which to win. At that point, the Waratahs were also travelling quite well, looking as if they were getting ready to mount a major run towards the title. It took bravery, commitment and relentless defence to win.

3. Their defence. You can't look beyond that. Before this weekend's final round, they had conceded just 185 points. Only the Waratahs, with 179, had a tighter defence. That spirit and belief the Crusaders found in adversity has been apparent in the way they have defended and, while it is hardly the entertainment package many are after, it is effective.

4. Delivering against the odds. That has always been the Crusaders' way and has continued this season. There was the win against the Waratahs that went against most predictions. Then there was an amazing win in Durban against the Sharks. Many believed no one would win in Durban this year and the Crusaders ruined that theory. Then there was the win against the Reds - it was always going to come but the Crusaders had to score four tries. And guess what?

5. The Canterbury imprint is stamped hard on several young players who have been pushed into action this season. Colin Slade and Ryan Crotty are in their rookie campaigns but already have that composure and confidence that marks them as special. Other inexperienced players such as Tim Bateman and Isaac Ross are taking the roles of senior pros well before their time. Other teams talk of rebuilding. The Crusaders don't. They work their young talent so well they always reach the Super 14 ready to do something rather than disappear and blame their age.

The key Player has been... KIERAN READ
There has been plenty to distract observers away from the superb contribution of Read. There is Slade, a first-five playing on the wing and playing well. There is the storming form of Ross - the big lock shows up everywhere - and there is the industriousness of Crotty in the midfield. Read, though, is like a revamped Reuben Thorne. He comes with all the same functions but all have been that little bit improved. His stability and relentless ability to be in the right place and do the right thing is what has made this side tick.

The key player will be... RICHIE MCCAW
The All Blacks skipper has had his season disrupted by injury. But now he's back in a place he knows and loves. This is where he comes into his own - the big games. For all that they have struggled with the ball, the Crusaders still have this ability to pull off sweeping moves from deep in their own territory. McCaw can start those with the turnovers he pinches and he can end them with his support running. When it comes to tight games, that can often make the difference.

What we know
The Crusaders are a dark horse. Everyone has ignored them - made the assumption they were too far back, not the same team of old and couldn't keep grinding their way into the playoffs. So now we know we were wrong. Now we know McCaw is going to be heavily involved and that Brad Thorn will gather some bodies around him and make it clear what is expected.

We know the Crusaders in the past have had this incredible capacity to surprise when they were under pressure. They remain the only side to have won a final away from home while they have won two semifinals on the road. We know they have a miserly defence that is going to give away nothing and we know they have reached this point on the back of two wins that will have sent their confidence sky high.

What we don't know
We don't know whether this side has the same depth of experience and ability to emulate their predecessors. We don't know if we can connect history to the present - so many from previous campaigns have gone. Only Thorn, McCaw and Leon MacDonald can really remember the good, old days. Others such as Read, Andy Ellis and Bateman have some experience, but not much.

We don't know about Stephen Brett just yet. We know he is talented but we're not sure if he has the ability to put a finals victory together.

We don't know if the Crusaders have enough strike power out wide to capitalise on the half-chances they might create and we don't know if their front five is tight enough. Certainly they are athletic and skilled, but it might turn ugly.

From where can they draw inspiration?
That hardly needs to be answered. Pick up a Super 14 history book and flick through it. That's all the inspiration any Crusader needs.