The Crusaders and Hurricanes are NZ's only hopes for semifinal berths. Michael Brown looks at their prospects.
CRUSADERS
Points: 36
The opposition: Brumbies, Christchurch, Friday
The equation: Simple, really - win and they're in. The draw has worked out perfectly for both the Crusaders and Hurricanes because they are both playing other semifinal contenders and a win will secure their passage. Four points would be enough to get the Crusaders there but they still have an outside chance of a home semifinal. They would have to rely on other results for this to happen:
* The Stormers would need to have been beaten by the Sharks (this morning) and Bulls (next week) and not pick up any more than two bonus points. If the Crusaders beat the Brumbies with a bonus point, they will still hope the Stormers don't pick up any more than two bonus points as the South Africans have a superior points differential if their table scores are tied.
* The Crusaders can afford the Hurricanes to beat the Waratahs but hope they do it without a bonus point (if the teams finish level on points, the Crusaders have a far superior points differential).
* It makes for a thrilling finish - four teams (Crusaders, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Brumbies) playing for two places. The Reds can only make it if the Stormers lost last night and again to the Bulls on Sunday.
Confused? Don't be. Win next week and the Crusaders have a chance of lifting their eighth Super Rugby title. Who would bet against that?
The history: Although the Brumbies have won eight of their 16 games against the Crusaders since the start of Super Rugby in 1996, they have won only twice in Christchurch and the last time was in 2000. The Crusaders are also unbeaten at home this season. The Brumbies have won two and lost three on the road in 2010.
The game plan:
1. Give the ball to Dan Carter. Despite an apparent flat period, he's still the world's best player and he showed that against the Bulls. He kicked goals (and drop goals), put others into space, set up tries, found some gaps of his own, kicked accurately out of hand and even put on a couple of big hits.
2. Keep moving the ball. Against the Bulls the Crusaders played quickly and expansively to create chances out wide. They even turned down penalties in front of the posts in favour of quick taps. They don't need to do that against the Brumbies but they should continue to play to their strengths - they have speed and skill out wide, why not use it?
3. Eliminate silly errors. The Crusaders have been unCrusader-like in recent weeks, especially in South Africa, and against the Bulls had racked up 12 handling errors by halftime.
* * *
HURRICANES
Points: 37
The opposition: Waratahs, Sydney, Friday
The equation: Like the Crusaders, the Hurricanes merely need to win to progress. And, like the boys from the Garden City, they may even steal a home semifinal if other results go their way. They have a better chance than the Crusaders of catching the Stormers but need to rely on the Sharks and Bulls beating them.
The history: The Hurricanes don't have a great record in Sydney, having won only two of their seven matches there but they need only look back to 2006 to see what they're capable of.
That year they needed to beat the Waratahs in the final game of the round-robin to grab a home semifinal at the expense of the Waratahs. They did, 19-14.
They repeated the dose the following week in Wellington 16-14 (as we all remember, they lost the final to the Crusaders in the fog).
The Hurricanes have been decent on the road this season (3 wins and 3 losses) with all three defeats coming in South Africa. Countering that is the fact the Waratahs have won all five matches at home in 2010.
Crucially, the Hurricanes have also won their last six games against Australian sides, a record winning sequence.
The game plan:
1. Start better. In the past two weeks, the Hurricanes have had to make seriously good late runs to claim the points. They trailed 24-8 early against the Chiefs and also found themselves behind 21-8 against the Reds - both at home. To overcome those margins showed composure and belief but doing it against a side which has conceded just 94 points at home this season (18.8 points a game) while racking up 196 of their own (39.2 points a game) is a difficult proposition.
2. Keep moving the ball. The Hurricanes look best giving the ball some air. It's also where their best players are. Ma'a Nonu has been all class in recent weeks (playing; not being interviewed) and has six tries, Hosea Gear scored a hat-trick on Friday night, Cory Jane has looked dangerous at fullback and Tamati Ellison is a powerful runner down the right wing. If Conrad Smith recovers from his head knock and Aaron Cruden continues to back his instincts, that's a lot of firepower in the backline.
3. Improve the set-pieces. The blistering second-half performance against the Reds will distract people from problem areas - like the lineout. The Hurricanes have looked shaky in the lineout all season and it was no different on Friday night. The throws miss their mark or the timing just isn't quite right. They also had difficulties at kick-off (their own and receiving) and need to be a lot more accurate in a crunch game.
