KEY POINTS:
For all that the Reds have been dreadful this season, there is a statistic floating about that the Chiefs are well aware of ahead of their visit to Suncorp Stadium tonight.
Eddie Jones' outfit are staring at a seventh straight Super 14 loss tonight, but they have been efficient in one respect: in three home games they've conceded just three tries. On the road they've leaked 17 in four games.
The Chiefs will respect their opponents tonight in a match they must win. Given that statistic, a four-try bonus point victory, which they desperately need to start their march up the table, is a tall order.
"What that tells you is they've still got a lot of pride, and when that pride is invoked they do play with a lot of passion," Chiefs coach Ian Foster said.
But pride alone should not be enough. Injuries have forced Jones to name a side with few alterations from the mob turned over 38-3 by the Force in Perth last week.
The Chiefs, conversely, have made five changes from the team which rattled up five tries in whipping the Lions in Hamilton a week ago. They include two refurbished All Blacks, wing Sitiveni Sivivatu and halfback Byron Kelleher.
The Chiefs have lost four games so far. They sit 12th, but are only six points off fourth spot.
Last year, which is the only relevant guide, the fourth qualifier for the playoffs, the Bulls, lost five of their 13 round robin games. So the numbers mean the Chiefs are still alive, but have almost used all their playoff lives.
Beating the Lions understandably lifted spirits, but Foster insists the squad believe they have not been far off for most of their campaign.
"We've had some tough things to deal with," he said. "The leadership players [including Jono Gibbes, Keith Robinson and Steven Bates] getting injured has put a lot of acid on the squad, and they've come through well.
"I'd reiterate that we feel we've been in quite a good place. That may not be reflected in the championship points, but a lot of groundwork has been done and as long as we keep the faith then we know we can succeed."
The temptation for Foster and his assistant Warren Gatland would have been to stick with his first choice front row and No 1 openside flanker Marty Holah, just to guard against any slipups against the Reds.
But the decision to rest Holah, Nathan White and Simms Davison is both a vote of confidence in their replacements, Tanerau Latimer, Ben Castle and Craig West, and an appreciation that a tough run-in lies ahead.
A sticky night might make life uncomfortable for the Chiefs. Lose tonight and, even in this Super 14 of surprise results, there may no coming back.
Reds v Chiefs
Brisbane, 9.40 tonight
Reds: Andrew Walker, Brando Va'aulu, Ben Tune, Lloyd Johansson, Peter Hynes, Quade Cooper, Nic Berry, John Roe (c), David Croft, Mitch Chapman, James Horwill, Ed O'Donoghue, Tama Tuirirangi, Stephen Moore, Herman Hunt
Reserves: Ole Avei, Ernest Skelton, Cameron Treloar, Tom McVerry, Will Genia, Charlie Fetoai, Henari Veratau
Chiefs: Dwayne Sweeney, Roy Kinikinilau, Tane Tu'ipulotu, Tasesa Lavea, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Stephen Donald, Byron Kelleher, Liam Messam, Tanerau Latimer, Sione Lauaki, Toby Lynn, Kristian Ormsby, Ben Castle, Tom Willis (c), Craig West
Reserves: Aled de Malmanche, Nathan White, Andrew van der Heijden, Marty Holah, Brendon Leonard, Niva Ta'auso, Lelia Masaga
