Rugby: Mitchell sits tight as Kings deal harms his Lions

John Mitchell's future is uncertain. Photo / Getty Images

The next step in John Mitchell's coaching career will be determined by how South African officials go about squeezing six Super Rugby teams into five places.

The South African Rugby Union has guaranteed that the Southern Kings will play Super Rugby next year - leaving the other five franchises to fight for survival. There won't be room for all of them in the 2013 competition - and the latest word from the Republic is that they will shortly agree that the lowest-ranked team in 2012 will be the one to make way.

That's looking likely to be the Lions but as coach Mitchell has said: "We've been around 120 years now, so I don't see us moving on too quickly. We are last year's Currie Cup champions and there's certainly a lot of grey area [in this]."

The grey area is that none of the existing franchises will accept their fate without a fight. There will be major financial ramifications attached to being chopped - with sponsorship deals arranged on the basis of teams playing Super Rugby. Prolonged legal battles loom and the picture is far from clear.

Sanzar chief executive Greg Peters says his organisation is keeping in close contact with the South Africans.

It's not Sanzar's place to be directly involved in delivering a solution but they are keen to see things resolved in the next month, as the scheduling for 2013 is already under way.

"This obviously creates logistical issues and complicates the draw," says Peters. "We need to know whose draw the Kings would assume. Will they just inherit the schedule of one of the existing teams? If so, we need to know which one."

The situation has been created by the South African Rugby Union jumping the gun and guaranteeing the Kings a Super Rugby place before they had secured an extension to the number of teams in the competition.

Sanzar has rejected a proposal to increase the competition to 16 teams on the basis that Super Rugby was sold to sponsors and broadcasters as a conference format with five teams in each.

Even if they did entertain an expansion to 16, the logistics of scheduling with uneven numbers in the respective conferences was plain ugly.

Aware that legal action is almost inevitable should one team be axed, the SARU is believed to be trying to facilitate a potential merger.

The Lions and Cheetahs were previously melded, featuring in the late 1990s through to 2006 as the Cats. The situation is fluid in South Africa but it is believed a similar merger in 2013 is unlikely, despite Mitchell stating a determined case for that being the best outcome.

The Cheetahs have improved steadily in the past two years and have a proven track record of producing talented players.

Combining them with the Lions would potentially create a competitive team but it is believed that if there is to be a merger, it is more likely to be with the Lions and Kings.

Geographically, a merger would make little sense but the premise would be for the Lions to supply players for Super Rugby and then take them back for the Currie Cup.

The uncertainty throws the coaching future of Mitchell into question. The former All Blacks coach has another year of his contract to run and could stay in Johannesburg, as no matter what else happens, the Lions will still be part of the Currie Cup.

If there is to be a merger of any kind involving the Lions, he may be asked to be part of the combined entity.

Failing that, Mitchell could be on the move again, although given his history, few expect to see him back coaching in New Zealand.