Few teams turn up at the start of the Super 14 season, steamroller their way through the round robins before the inevitable lifting of the trophy.
The Blues did it in 1997 and 2003, the Crusaders did it in 2002 and to a lesser extent in 2006, but they are rarities. Most teams, at some point in the season, reach a critical juncture - the Chiefs have reached theirs.
It seems like they've gone already, the way they are being written off, but having seen the draw at the start of the season, Chiefs fans would not have been overly stressed about a 3-3 record at this stage. Winning the first three set up a false dawn, just as losing the last three has sparked premature obituaries.
Over the next four weeks they meet three South African sides at home, the title contending Stormers and Bulls, and the also-ran Cheetahs. Wins against the Bulls and the Stormers in particular would achieve the win-win of helping their semifinal aspirations and hurting the South Africans.
But that's getting ahead of ourselves. First they have an assignment against the Highlanders at Mt Maunganui.
Talk about a critical juncture. Lose this one and the Chiefs are gone. Mathematics might say differently, but you don't lose to the Highlanders at home and harbour title hopes.
So while it must be tempting for Ian Foster to rest some key components of his squad, he does not have that luxury. It's probably why he keeps convincing himself he must pick Sione Lauaki.
The Chiefs are named this afternoon and interest will focus on whether Lauaki is included in the starting 15. The No 8 was poor against the Brumbies and Colin Bourke, should he be recovered from a rib injury, appeals as a sounder option.
But that's not really the issue, is it?
No matter how hard the Chiefs have pushed a united front, issues surrounding Lauaki have wavered between soap opera and circus and it has to have an effect.
Promoted to captain in the absence of Mils Muliaina, Lauaki was first injured, then cited and suspended, then charged with assault after a night on the turps in central Hamilton.
The best thing that could have happened would have been, once Lauaki pleaded guilty, for the Chiefs and NZRU to have initiated disciplinary procedures quickly. Instead, they will wait until after the May 6 sentencing, two days before the penultimate round-robin match, before acting.
Should the NZRU decide a suspension is an appropriate course of action the most Lauaki would miss is the final round-robin match. That reeks not of "justice", but of opportunism.
Rugby: Lauaki circus is an untimely distraction for the Chiefs
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