Here's what has to happen if the Blues are to make the final four of the Super 14: Accepting that the Stormers are likely to beat the bottom-placed Lions overnight and thus get to 41 points (which seems likely to be the qualifying point), the Blues were depending
on the Reds beating theWaratahs and the Chiefs - now without a chance of making the finals - beating the Sharks.
If neither of those things occur, the Blues are gone.
However, that is not the end of the intrigue. The Waratahs had it comparatively simple - beat the Reds and they are in the semifinals and with a home tie for finishing second.
At that stage, the Crusaders (52 points), Waratahs (maybe 43 points), Hurricanes (41) and Stormers (maybe 42 or 41, but with much smaller points differential) looked the likeliest semifinalists at the time of writing last night. However, the Sharks could replace the Stormers in the top four if they beat the Chiefs and if the Stormers didn't achieve a bonus point against the Lions this morning.
Going into the overnight matches, the Sharks had a points differential of 60, compared to the Stormers' 49 - meaning the Stormers will need to win by 12 points or more over the Sharks' winning margin if they are to make the finals ahead of their local rivals.
But the problem for the Blues is that, even if the Chiefs win - but the Reds don't - they will still miss out and the above four teams will make the semifinals.
