History, form and talent are against the Melbourne Rebels as they contemplate upsetting the Hurricanes in Wellington tomorrow.
Not only that, the Hurricanes are planning to be more clinical after a loose last 20 in Tokyo. That spells more bad news for the Rebels, who have some useful, and familiar names in their 23. Former Crusaders and Fiji No 10 Ben Volavola is on the bench, alongside former Blues and Bay of Plenty lock Culum Retallick. Replacement hooker Pat Leafa was the Auckland rake in 2009, while first five Jackson Garden-Bachop returns to his 2016 home ground, where he kicked goals from everywhere for the Wellington Lions. He will have his work cut out marking Beauden Barrett, who has his first start.
The Hurricanes have won this fixture four times out of five, the only reverse in 2011, and only the most optimistic punter will be predicting anything other than at least a decisive 30-point victory. A solid 10-point start on the log will be needed before they hook into New Zealand Conference clashes with the Chiefs and Highlanders.
Captain Dane Coles, while feeling for Blade Thomson and his shoulder injury, feels content that Nehe Milner-Skudder is back in harness in the No 15 jersey after a false start last week.
"He's fizzing to go. He showed some pretty good signs at the 10s. He's just a good guy to have. He's very professional and works hard behind the scenes. That's good for the young guys to see," Coles says.