North Harbour's long-held ambition of becoming a Super Rugby franchise is all but dead with the union unlikely to make a bid to become the new boy in 2011's Super 15.
Sanzar has put out a tender document for interested parties to host what will be the fifth franchise in the Australian conference of Super 15.
While the new franchise will have to play home and away matches against the other four Australian franchises, that doesn't necessarily mean it has to be based across the Tasman.
But the New Zealand Rugby Union - which will field all bids from these shores before referring them to Sanzar - has made it clear it does not believe there is scope for a sixth team here.
The fact the national body has indicated a reluctance to support bids has left Harbour officials almost certain they won't submit one.
That could be in contrast to Hawke's Bay who are believed to be interested in a bid. The region has enjoyed a rugby renaissance in the last few years and believes it has the player base, lifestyle and financial backing for a serious proposal.
Harbour have crunched the numbers and believe it would be financially untenable to support a team. That conclusion was reached not because the logistics made the costs prohibitive. Air travel between the eastern seaboard of Australia and Auckland is comparable and in many cases cheaper than it is within Australia.
The reluctance stems from the fact there is no evidence to suggest crowd numbers or sponsorship dollars will be sufficient to break even.
Sanzar is convinced otherwise. The executive teams from all three countries believe that, with smarter marketing and a new format featuring more local content, crowds will rise sharply and sponsorship interest will blossom as a consequence.
A board meeting this week will confirm Harbour's stance and signal the end of their ambition to be more than a feeder province to the Blues.
The NZRU has recently propped up the Highlanders serving as another major blow to Harbour who have always felt they are a more worthy base than the Southerners.
For several years now the Highlanders have struggled to fill their squad from within their own boundaries; their crowds have been poor and their performances mixed but mainly disappointing.
Harbour has been a great source of players for the Highlanders, taking the likes of Nick Evans, Craig Newby and Anthony Tuitavake on loan when those players couldn't squeeze into the oversubscribed Blues.
Rather than force good players from Harbour to shift South to play for a franchise that has limited financial resources and a small fan base, Harbour have argued a second franchise in Auckland makes more sense.
But, with the NZRU having given a two-year commitment to the Highlanders and a bid for the Australian conference hosting rights unlikely to be made, Harbour now have virtually no chance of becoming a Super Rugby franchise base.
The Australian Rugby Union has confirmed that the Victorian Rugby Union and a second party - possibly the Melbourne Victory soccer team - have registered an interest with the Gold Coast and possibly a Sydney bid also expected.
Bids must be lodged by July 22, with the winning bid announced on October 31.
Rugby: Harbour likely to forget bid for Super team
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