Rugby: Fringe AB Jigsaw takes shape

Kevin Mealamu. Photo / Ron Burgin

Super Rugby is already a third of the way through "Super 15" pool play - so Gregor Paul asks 15 of the key questions about the new competition and its effect on the World Cup.

Did the Highlanders get a lucky start?

What sort of team the Highlanders really are will become apparent in the next three weeks. They have two home games against the Brumbies and Cheetahs and then an away clash with the Rebels. If they have truly turned a corner, they will win all three.

They can't live off their opening three wins. Do they have the courage to re-build from the hammering they took against the Crusaders? Can their set-piece stay firm? Can they sustain their discipline and aggression, keep their structure and still have the confidence to move the ball to space?
Answer: Unknown

Are Adam Thomson and Matt Todd in a two-way fight to be back-up No 7?

The picture was clouded before the season began. There was a long list, no one really sure of the pecking order. In the opening weeks, that long-list has been trimmed. Daniel Braid hasn't looked like an All Black. Tanerau Latimer hasn't looked like an All Black.

Thomson on the other hand has been superb, as has Todd. It is Thomson, though, who has shown everything the selectors wanted to see - ball-carrying, big defence, high workrate, excellent decision-making and handy work on the ground. Todd has looked equally dynamic at times without standing out quite as obviously. He knows how to run with the ball, gets his body into great positions at the breakdown and keeps going for the full 80.
Answer: Yes

Is Victor Vito playing his way in and Liam Messam his way out?

As the senior man in the Hurricanes back-row, the pressure is on Vito to lead by example. He's been impressive so far - showing a greater willingness to run into contact rather than space. While the latter is his strength and preferable, there are times when a No 8 has to power through defenders, tie them up and hammer his way over the advantage line.

Messam has been erratic, lateral and strangely indecisive. There have been flashes of his outrageous skill - some glorious long passes - but not enough old-fashioned head down, bum up sort of stuff, although he was much improved in the wet last night.
Answer: Yes

Is Scott Waldrom the find of the season so far?

There wasn't much excitement when the Chiefs announced last year that they had signed ScottWaldrom. The30-year-old had struggled with injury for most of the last two years and it was hard to believe he was going to add much to the mix.

He's been a revelation so far. He plays a different game, made possible by his electric speed. He gets to places other sevens can't and his energy and drive has lifted the Chiefs.

He has been an outstanding winner of turnover ball - the type of possession the Chiefs thrive on - and most important, he's been superb at slowing opposition ball.
Answer: Yes

Is Joe Rokocoko now in terminal decline?

It says much about the faith Pat Lam has in Joe Rokocoko that he was prepared to select second five Benson Stanley on the wing a week ago.

Rokocoko just hasn't looked right all season - and his decline can be traced back to the first half of the test against England in November. He had an awful 25 minutes in that game where he couldn't do anything right and it rocked his confidence. It looks like he hasn't recovered.

His self-belief has seemingly gone, his fearsome acceleration is nowhere to be seen, his micro skills clumsy and the harder he tries to fix things, the more prone he is to making mistakes.

Contracted until the end of the season, it would be a surprise if he makes the World Cup squad and an even bigger one if he stays on for more. His reputation is still strong enough to win a major offshore contract and he looks like he needs a change of scene; something different to try to rekindle the world class player within.
Answer: Maybe

Is Aaron Cruden getting worse not better?
Plaudits continue to flow about Aaron Cruden but there is little doubt the Hurricanes had more flow and cohesion when Daniel Kirkpatrick started. Cruden has been charged with delivering and he may be feeling the pressure.

He may have it in his mind that he needs to do something special to win back his All Black place.

The technical parts of his game still don't look up to international standard. His kicking out of hand lacks length and accuracy while he hasn't been able to impose himself in terms of the tactical navigation. To go from being an All Black in 2010 to Hurricanes bench man in 2011 is not progress.

His best hope of still featuring in the All Blacks is to impress in the latter half of the campaign when Piri Weepu returns. With Weepu and Ma'a Nonu on either side of him, he will have guidance and leadership and that might bring out the best in him.
Answer: Yes

Will Richard Kahui be squeezed out of the All Blacks by the power of combinations?
The All Blacks need two specialist centres in their World Cup mix. Conrad Smith is one and Kahui probably has the best case to be the other.

He's a big game player, has proven himself at that level, tackles hard and runs straight. But the selectors also have two ready-made combinations in Nonu and Smith and Sonny Bill Williams and Robbie Fruean. If Smith should be injured at the World Cup, there would be some logic in replacing him with Fruean and starting Williams at second five.

Those two work so well together and while Fruean has no test experience, he's shown enough in the last eight months to suggest he could handle it. Nonu and Williams are interchangeable in the sense they are both direct, attack-minded players who go up the middle. Nonu's advantage is his established partnership with Smith. It would be tough on Kahui to miss out but the selectors surely realise the value of established combinations?
Answer: Unknown

Will the Rebels damage the Wallabies?
As the Bulls and Sharks showed in 2007, there is some mileage to be gained in the test arena from a successful Super Rugby campaign. A number of leading Springboks reached June 2007 in form, brimming with confidence as a consequence of the Bulls and Sharks reaching the final.

Conversely, there must now be some concern in Australia that so many of their leading players are going to reach the end of Super Rugby in a fairly miserable state of mind.

The Rebels, in spite of their win over the Hurricanes on Friday, have already taken some hammerings and there will be plenty more to come.The Brumbies are in disarray and even the Waratahs are now a doubt having been beaten up by the Cheetahs in Sydney.

The arrival of the Rebels has stretched already thin resources too far. When the Wallabies assemble later in the year, many of their players will be demoralised, low on confidence and short of form.
Answer: Maybe

How long can Tana Umaga sustain his form?

Umaga wasn't brought into the Chiefs with a view to being their starting second five every week. But his form so far has been compelling and he could potentially form a midfield combination with Kahui that gives the Chiefs the defensive edge and attacking threat they need to challenge for a play-off place.

Chiefs coach Ian Foster tends to take Umaga off around the 55 minutes- 60 minutes mark and that conservative management should keep him fresh deeper into the season. But the Chiefs have a tough run looming where they have to travel to South Africa and play the Crusaders twice in six weeks. How much of a toll will that take on Umaga and perhaps more poignantly, can the Chiefs manage without him?
Answer: Unknown

Will it be the Sharks or Stormers who most influence the Springboks?
No one would be daft enough to write them off yet, but it is clear that the Bulls are not the force they were in the previous two seasons. The Sharks and Stormers look like they will battle it out for supremacy in the South African conference with, potentially one of them, making it to the final.

They have contrasting styles. The Sharks, under New Zealand coach John Plumtree, want to play wide when they can, offload and stretch defences. The Stormers are more conservative, accurate, disciplined and patient. Their game is built around their set piece and so far, they have ground opponents into submission. Plumtree is convinced the Boks would benefit from playing more like the Sharks and, should they push on, make the playoffs, or even win the competition, his case would be hard to deny. Likewise the Stormers could firm the belief that the Boks, in World Cup year, should simplify their game and use the power of their forwards and defence.
Answer: Unknown

Is it time for defending sides to get a fairer deal?
The desire to make the game flow has handed too many rights to the attacking team.

Too often referees immediately warn the defending side to keep their hands off the ball when in fact they have legitimately won the right to play it. If in doubt, penalise the defending team seems to be the thinking.

The most consistent crime is allowing attacking players to enter the breakdown from the side while the merest hint of the defensive side not having 'come through the gate' ends in a penalty.
Answer: Yes

Has Keven Mealamu become the next best captain in New Zealand behind Richie McCaw?

In his first two seasons as captain, Mealamu didn't convince as a leader of others. A superb player, highly professional and committed, But he didn't appear to have a grasp on the tactical nuances, wasn't fully aware of the extent of his role and the influence he could have on the team.

This season he has made bold tactical calls that have swung results - his decisions to kick for touch against the Crusaders and again against the Hurricanes were inspired. He is more vocal on the field now, more capable of adapting the game-plan and more willing to say what needs to be said behind closed doors.

Answer: Yes

Has Andy Ellis done enough already to book his World Cup place?

Ellis has been the form halfback. His running has reached unprecedented levels of effectiveness and his decision-making has been almost faultless. Against the Brumbies he was sensational and his easy disposition, desire to help out and not moan make him the ideal personality to be the third halfback in the national squad and accept that he might not play much.
Answer: Maybe

Jamie Mackintosh or John Afoa?

Afoa came of age last season. The reduced number of scrums and increased aerobic content suited his game and he finished the year strongly with a memorable individual try in Cardiff.

He has just signed a deal to join Ulster after the World Cup and while this All Black panel have never discriminated against those who are set to leave before, maybe this time it could have some bearing on their thinking.

Mackintosh has made a strong start to the season. He's a natural leader, improved scrummager and is showing up well in the loose. He's also likely, at 26, to be around for a while yet.
Answer: Unknown

Is this potentially the best Crusaders side ever seen?

Statistically the Crusaders of 2002 can claim to be the best - not losing a single game in their successful campaign.

But there is something about this current team. They are so structured yet not inhibited by patterns. They are so strong at the set piece yet not overly reliant on it. They have power, pace, run incredible lines of support and look impressively fit.

Prior to their clash with the Sharks in London, they had scored 129 points in three games, yet had long flat periods in each. They have so much more to come and they also have Richie McCaw to bring back.
Answer: Yes