KEY POINTS:
Australian broadcaster Fox Sports will wait until next month before determining if the withdrawal of All Blacks has depressed viewing figures. The owner of Australia's Super 14 pay TV rights expressed concerns about New Zealand withdrawing 22 All Blacks from the first seven rounds of this year's competition.
While it had no legal means to prevent the withdrawal, Fox warned last year that it would seek financial compensation if the non-appearance led to a loss of viewers.
Fox Sports director of programming and acquisitions, Craig Dobbs, said it was not appropriate to draw any conclusions about ratings after just one round.
"We will look at the numbers once the All Blacks return," says Dobbs. "We can't make any conclusions after just one week as it is too difficult to compare with previous years.
"The seasonal variations will flatten out over the course of the tournament and then we will be able to compare them with previous years and determine whether there has been a negative impact."
If Fox believes there is quantifiable evidence that numbers are down as a result of the conditioning programme, Dobbs says the media group will take that evidence to News Limited, the owners of the broadcast rights.
News Limited is the arm of the Rupert Murdoch-owned News Corp that paid US$323m in 2004 to buy the five-year rights for Super 14 and Tri Nations. News then sold broadcast packages into domestic markets, with Fox buying the Australian rights and SkyTV the New Zealand rights.
If Fox thinks it has a case, it would expect News to take the evidence to Sanzar and then push for some financial compensation from the New Zealand Rugby Union.
News would argue that it has not been provided with the product it paid for in 2004. If it should receive any money back from the NZRU, much of that would flow back to Fox who would be able to argue that News had not provided the domestic packages it had promised.
In terms of working out how much compensation might be due, Dobbs said it would be a case of determining by how much the figures were down and then trying to see how much of the decrease could be attributed to the non-appearance of All Blacks.
From there News would have to work out what percentage of games were directly affected by not having the big names available and then hit the NZRU with a bill to readjust the value of the contract accordingly.
The NZRU is hoping the All Blacks' withdrawal will not lead to any legal suits and is confident viewing figures will hold up with the introduction of new players and the possibility of the Super 14 being more competitive than in previous years.
Fox, though, is wary as it fears that might encourage similar mass withdrawals in future.
"Maybe the figures will be strong and maybe this will be good for the game, we'll just have to wait and see," said Dobbs. "We are philosophically opposed, though, to the idea of taking the top players out of the competition as we believe the best teams should be seen all the time.
"In the next negotiation we need to see a more straightforward contract where it is black and white. What happens if the All Blacks win the World Cup? Will that mean we see Australia and South Africa do the same thing in 2011 and 90 players come out?
"I wouldn't want to see broadcasters stipulating that players can't be withdrawn as it is up to the coaches of each union to determine how they prepare their players. But that will have an impact on the valuation of the contract."
