Rugby: Final crusade packed with options

Crusaders loose-forward Kieran Read suffered a gashed cheek on Friday, but is expected to be fit for their semifinal. Photo / Getty Images

The Crusaders will finish fourth and therefore play the Bulls if the Stormers win this morning. If the game in Cape Town is either drawn or the Stormers lose, then the Crusaders will play the Waratahs in Sydney.

Gregor Paul analyses the two prospective semifinal scenarios facing the Crusaders.

Crusaders vs Bulls

WEAKNESSES

* Logistics

Air travel and elite performance are not a good mix. Body clocks don't adjust quickly. Training and preparation is compromised and legs take a long time to come good again.

Everything is that bit harder - doubly so when the Crusaders only arrived back in New Zealand last Sunday and had to pack up and take off again this morning.

It will be physically and mentally draining - a big test of their professionalism to reach kick-off energised for the contest.

* History

The Crusaders not only lost to the Stormers in Round 12 and the Bulls in Round 13, they lost in Pretoria in last year's semifinal and also the 2007 semi. Only one visiting team, the Highlanders in 1999, have won a playoff game in South Africa.

The Crusaders' overall record in South Africa is not good in Super 14 - they have played 14 games there since 2006 and only won six.

* Raging Bulls

The Bulls have not lost at home since the Hurricanes beat them in 2008. That's an impressive record and one they have maintained this year largely because of their ability to be going hard in the 80th minute - something the Crusaders experienced.

Such a run of success at home has given them confidence and deep commitment to preserve a stunning record.

STRENGTHS

* Venue

The Bulls are unable to play at Loftus due to Football World Cup preparations so will be hosting at Orlando Stadium in Soweto.

How the 'home' side will be received is a source of genuine intrigue. The key point, though, is that the Bulls away from Pretoria are not the same team.

They will be as much out of their comfort zone as the Crusaders and some of their mental aura will diminish without the steepling stands of Loftus to intimidate.

* Momentum

Super Rugby has always been a momentum competition - and the Crusaders have long been the experts at slowly building so they reach the finals in prime form.

They look to have done the same again this year. While they lost in Pretoria, they played superbly and were denied, really, by some poor refereeing decisions.

Having unexpectedly lost to the Force and then played meekly against the Stormers, they suddenly clicked against the Bulls and looked deadly against the Brumbies.

From nowhere they have found their confidence and form. The passing is sharp, the angles of running are decisive and penetrative. The timing is good, the support play good and the set-piece rock solid.

The Brumbies were torn apart in Christchurch and made to look decidedly ordinary. On the form shown on Friday night, the Bulls will be worried.

They might also have hampered their own progress by resting so many frontline players for this morning's match. It's always a risk breaking a team up for a week to then reunite them.

* Revenge

The admission by referee selector Colin Hawke that Marius Jonker had a poor game when the Crusaders played the Bulls will only serve to strengthen the conviction in Christchurch that revenge has to be taken.

There is a simmering sense of injustice about the way that game ended. It was obvious all last week that the Crusaders were just burning to stuff the Brumbies and jump back on the plane to have another crack at the Bulls.

* Strength in Depth

Coach Todd Blackadder has the luxury of choice, which means he is going to be relaxed about covering injuries and fatigue.

Daniel Bowden has added value at second five eighths but there is also Ryan Crotty bursting to come back into the side, while Tim Bateman added composure and direction when he came on for Robbie Fruean against the Brumbies.

Jared Payne is a nice option to have on the bench for the outside backs and Kahn Fotuali'i will be desperate to make amends for his off-field misdemeanour.

In the forwards, Wyatt Crockett might have to sit out another game, as the Franks brothers are in mean form. Sam Whitelock deserves a crack at the two best locks in the world. which will leave Chris Jack in reserve, while Thomas Waldrom is an excellent contributor when introduced.

Crusaders vs Waratahs

WEAKNESSES

* Pack Hunting

The Waratahs pack has been in outrageously good form these last two weeks - superb at the set-piece; mobile, aggressive and dynamic. They win the ball, keep the ball and drive the team forward.

* Back Three

The best back three in the competition is Lachie Turner, Drew Mitchell and Kurtley Beale. They were superb against the Chiefs and even better against the Hurricanes. They are deadly. Mitchell is proving impossible to put down; Turner sees things others don't and Beale has finally come of age now he's freed from the labour of decision-making at No 10.

* Clean Sweep

The Waratahs have not lost at home this year. They are reasonably keen for that to remain the case.

STRENGTHS

* Chokers

The Waratahs are notorious bottlers. Remember how they combusted in 2002? They are a close but no cigar sort of team, which they have shown over the years.

They have played the Crusaders in two finals - 2005 and 2008 - and never looked convincing. The Crusaders also have the psychological advantage of having beaten the Waratahs in round 9.

* Sunny Sydney

Sydney has been a happy hunting ground for the Crusaders. They won there last year to end a three-game streak without a win and also in 2007 and 2005.

* Front Row Seats

The Crusaders scrum has edged up another gear, while the Waratahs are without Benn Robinson. While the Hurricanes weren't able to gain much mileage from that, the Crusaders will.

The Waratahs have been fingered as the worst transgressor when it comes to scrum re-sets.

The current refereeing stance is clear - any mucking about will be penalised and there is a chance, with a strong official, the Waratahs could self-inflict mortal wounds if they try to collapse or engage to their own commands.

* Playoff Heritage

The Crusaders not only have a brilliant success rate in knock-out football, they are the only team to have consistently won big games away from home.

They have won three finals outside Christchurch and this is the 12th time they have reached the semifinals and have only lost twice - in 2007 and 2009 - at this stage.