Rugby: Entering the finals stretch

CHIEFS V HURRICANES

7.30 TONIGHT, HAMILTON


WHERE THEY CAN WIN IT

CHIEFS: The breakdown. As the weather has turned, the free-scoring, expansive Chiefs of early season have been replaced by a more circumspect lot. But one thing hasn't changed - their work at the breakdown.

Even when they were getting worked over in the scrums and couldn't win a lineout during the three-match losing streak with which they opened the season, the Chiefs were still a force at the breakdown.

They commit in numbers, counter-ruck furiously and almost without fail win the turnover battle over the 80 minutes. That trend has continued through mid-season highs such as the 50+ point demolitions of the Blues and Reds and into the grim slogs of the past few weeks.

HURRICANES: The scrum: They may have been whistled out of it last week against the Reds but the Hurricanes frontrow is still among the most effective in the competition. Able to deliver quality ball on their own feed, the Hurricanes are also adept at disturbing the flow of their opponent's ball.

The Chiefs have been exposed in the scrums frequently this season - as recently as last week against the Brumbies - and with senior prop Ben May absent they look vulnerable. If the Canes win the scrum battle decisively, they'll probably win the match.

AND LOSE IT

CHIEFS: The set piece. The scrum and the lineout were major weaknesses in the early part of the season but both improved significantly as the team peeled off nine wins in the past 10 games to make the semifinals.

But Aled de Malmanche's lineout throwing hardly inspires confidence and the scrum isn't the same without May. If another prop goes down, Joe Savage will be called upon for the first time since turning in a 20-minute cameo against the Force in round four.

HURRICANES: Goal-kicking. Willie Ripia seems to be striking the ball worse and worse as the weeks go by. Last week against the Reds he pull-hooked one wide from just in front and missed another from a handy position.

The previous week he kicked one-from-five against the Chiefs in an 18-8 defeat. Overall he has kicked 27/36 at a respectable 75 per cent success rate. But if it's close - and it probably will be - his recent form doesn't inspire much confidence.

MANO-A-MANO

Stephen Donald v Willie Ripia

An established veteran with 60 Super Rugby caps to his name, Donald's tactical nous and ability to implement a gameplan make him New Zealand's pre-eminent first five-eighths in a Dan Carter-free landscape.

His goal-kicking is steady under pressure and he has an eye for the gap and the tryline. In the past two matches he has contributed all of the Chiefs' points. Ripia, by contrast, wasn't even in the Hurricanes' original 22 for their opening match of the season.

He played his way back into favour with some sparkling mid-season performances but that lustre has been absent in recent weeks and his goal-kicking has undergone a dramatic decline.

Aled de Malmanche v Andrew Hore

The blockbusting ball runner versus the ultimate ball snaffler. De Malmanche's bullocking runs have been the catalyst for many a successful Chiefs' raid this season. Incredibly strong, he seldom submits to the first tackle and stopping him sucks a tremendous amount of energy from opposing defenders.

But his work at set piece time is less convincing. Hore isn't quite the same handful around the track, but is a serious try-scoring threat close to the line and stands alone in his ability to ferret the ball out of opposing rucks. The Canes are deadly off turnovers, Hore is one of the chief suppliers.

STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

CHIEFS: Having won nine of their past 10, the Chiefs are the form team of the semifinals. They have excellent attacking numbers, ranking third in tries (43) and points scored (338) but are equally as effective in defence, where they rank fifth in tries (30) and third in points conceded (236). Sitiveni Sivivatu is sixth-equal on the try-scoring list with six, while Stephen Donald is second on the points list with 130.

HURRICANES: The competition's best attacking team with 49 tries and 380 points scored, the Hurricanes aren't so crash-hot on defence, ranking eighth (35) in tries and ninth (279) in points conceded. Ma'a Nonu is the competition's leading try-scorer with nine, but leading points scorer Willie Ripia (80) is well down the list in eighth.

Their winning streak stands at just one after the round 13 loss to the Chiefs, but that was their only reverse in their last six matches.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

CHIEFS: Haven't been anywhere or done much. Their lone playoff match was a 17-32 defeat by the Brumbies in 2004. Of the current squad, only Sione Lauaki and Sitiveni Sivivatu were with the Chiefs that season. Sivivatu played in the semifinal, Lauaki was out injured. Captain Mils Muliaina has won a title, with the Blues in 2003.

HURRICANES: Six-time semifinalists, the Canes have been in the playoffs five of the past seven years. They haven't had a lot of success, however, having lost four times to the Crusaders (three semifinals and a final) in Christchurch and once to the Brumbies in Canberra. Their lone success came in 2006, when they edged the Waratahs 16-14 in a Wellington semifinal. Eight of the team from that match will line up against the Chiefs tonight.

CHIEFS

Finished: 2nd

Regular season: Won: 9 Lost: 4 Points: 45

Tries scored: 43 (3rd)

Tries conceded: 30 (5th)

Points scored: 338 (=3rd)

Points conceded: 236 (3rd)

Top try scorer: Sitiveni Sivivatu (6)

Top points scorer: Stephen Donald (130)

ROAD TO THE FINAL

(Round, result, ranking)

R1, lost to Crusaders 13-19 (a), 12

R2, lost to Waratahs 7-11 (a),12

R3, lost to Sharks 17-22 (h), 12

R4, beat Force 31-13 (h), 8

R5, beat Highlanders 14-10 (a), 8

R6, beat Blues 63-34 (h), 4

R7, beat Reds 50-26 (a), 3

R8, beat Lions 36-29 (h), 2

R9, bye, 2

R10, beat Cheetahs 28-10 (a), 1

R11, lost to Bulls 27-33 (a), 3

R12, beat Stormers 28-14 (a), 2

R13, beat Hurricanes 16-8 (h), 2

R14, beat Brumbies 10-7 (h), 2

PLAYOFFS HISTORY

Played 1, lost 1.

Beaten semifinalist: 2004

The last of the original 12 Super teams to make the playoffs, the Chiefs make just their second post-season appearance and their first at home. They were defeated by the Brumbies in Canberra in their only previous playoff match.

HURRICANES

Finish: 3rd

Regular season: Won: 9 Lost: 4 Points: 44

Tries scored: 49 (1st)

Tries conceded: 35 (=8th)

Points scored: 380 (1st)

Points conceded: 279 (9th)

Top try scorer: Ma'a Nonu (9)

Top points scorer: Willie Ripia (80)

ROAD TO THE FINAL

(Round, result, ranking)

R1, lost to Waratahs 22-26 (h), 9

R2, beat Highlanders 22-17 (h), 7

R3, beat Crusaders 30-24 (a), 6

R4, beat Cheetahs 29-12 (h), 4

R5, bye, 5

R6, lost to Bulls 14-19 (h), 6

R7, beat Lions 38-32 (a), 5

R8, lost to Sharks 17-33 (a), 5

R9, beat Force 28-27 (a), 5

R10, beat Stormers 34-11 (h), 4

R11, beat Brumbies 56-7 (h), 1

R12, beat Blues 45-27 (h), 1

R13, lost to Chiefs 8-16 (a), 3

R14, beat Reds 37-28 (a), 3

PLAYOFFS HISTORY

Played 6, won 1, lost 5.

Beaten finalist: 2006

Beaten semi-finalist: 1997, 2003, 2005, 2008

Four of the Hurricanes' five playoff losses have been at the hands of the Crusaders, with all four of those games played in Christchurch. A home win against the Waratahs in 2006 and an away defeat to the Brumbies in 1997 are their only other matches.

* * *

BULLS v CRUSADERS

1AM SUNDAY, PRETORIA

WHERE THEY CAN WIN IT

BULLS: Ticking the scoreboard over. Points have been at a premium against the miserly Crusaders but, with Morne Steyn in their line-up, the Bulls are a three-point threat any time they get within 60m of the Crusaders' line. A long-range penalty specialist, Steyn is also a dab foot at drop goals, having connected with six of 19 attempts this season. The five-eighths has also landed 51 goals and scored a try to lead all scorers with 151 points.

CRUSADERS: As the Americans would say, D-fence. They might not be much chop on attack, but the Crusaders will be hoping the maxim that defence wins big matches holds true. It's an approach that has worked for them eight times already this season, including a 16-13 victory over the Bulls in round eight. When the champs have lost, they haven't lost by many. Not once have they been more than a converted try behind at full-time. If that trend continues and they can stay in the game at the death, a team with no shortage of self belief will back itself to come through under pressure.

AND LOSE IT

BULLS: Ill-discipline. Centre JP Nel is already out, suspended after KO-ing Steffan Terblanche with a swinging arm last week, while flanker Deon Stegmann (1 red 3 yellow) has a worse disciplinary record than the entire Crusaders team (4 yellow). Throw in serial thug Bakkies Botha - lucky to escape suspension himself after slapping Sharks No 8 Ryan Kankowski - Kiwi whistler Bryce Lawrence, the South Africans' pathological dislike of Mr R. McCaw and the mix could be explosive.

CRUSADERS: A lack of ambition and some rubbish goal kicking. Where those who live in the shadow of the Southern Alps see a cautious adherence to a gameplan, others simply see a team that somehow managed to score nil against the Highlanders. Either way, there's no doubting the Crusaders are offensively challenged. If they don't chance their arm at least a little against the Bulls, it's doubtful they can win. Especially if they rely on their goal-kicking. Leon MacDonald did the job well enough against the Blues last week but overall the Crusaders have been awful, landing just 55 per cent of their attempts - the worst in the competition.

MANO-A-MANO

Pierre Spies v Thomas Waldrom

Blessed with tremendous pace and power, Spies is the form No 8 of the competition and equal top scorer for the Bulls with five tries. He missed the 2007 World Cup through injury, but has been a fixture in the Springbok No 8 jersey since, compiling 19 caps. His opposite, Thomas Waldrom, is the least-decorated of a Crusaders loose trio that includes Richie McCaw and Keiran Read. But Waldrom is vastly experienced at provincial level, notching 30 Super Rugby caps for the Hurricanes and making 80 appearances for Wellington before heading south. A workhorse, he has been ever-present for the Crusaders this year, scoring two tries in 13 starts. Surprisingly agile given his build, Waldrom lacks Spies' top-end pace but his power game makes him an equally dangerous running threat.

Bakkies Botha v Brad Thorn

A battle between two Christian gentlemen of seemingly polar-opposite natures. Both enforcers, one can't stop hitting people, the other is a bloke very few people have the stones to hit. A collective sigh of relief issued forth from Canterbury this week when Thorn was cleared to play. His granite-like presence will be crucial if the Crusaders are to stand-up to the physical challenges posed by the Bulls. There was also relief in Pretoria when Botha skated on a striking charge, with a judiciary ruling his slapping of Ryan Kankowski lacked intent. Presumably Botha's defence team argued along the lines that, when Botha hits people with intent, they tend to stay hit. While not in the same class as Victor Matfield, Botha plays a pretty decent Robin to his captain's Batman. As locking duos go, there is none better at any level of the game.

STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

BULLS: The Bulls have been steady but hardly spectacular in both attack and defence. They rank third equal in points scored (338) and fifth in tries scored (37) and are sixth in tries (33) and seventh in points conceded (271). Most of their points have come from the competition's leading scorer, Morne Steyn (151), but they have several try-scoring threats.

CRUSADERS: The defending champs could hardly be less like the middle-of-the-road Bulls, having conceded the fewest points (198), but scored the second-least (231). Only the bottom-of-the-table Cheetahs scored fewer tries than the Crusaders' 27, while only the Waratahs conceded fewer than the 22 shipped by Todd Blackadder's battlers. Individually, the numbers could hardly be uglier for the champs. Their top try-scorer is Casey Laulala (4), who suffered a season-ending broken arm in round four. Stephen Brett, their leading points scorer with 47, comes in at 18th on the scoring list.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

BULLS: Semifinalists in the first year of Super rugby, the Bulls were the competition mugs from 1998-2002 - a five-year stretch when they won just seven games and produced a best finish of 11th. The turnaround began in 2003 when they won six of 11 matches. In 2005 they were back in the playoffs and they backed that up with another semifinal appearance the following year before breaking through for their first title in 2007.

CRUSADERS: The champions are embarking on their eighth consecutive playoff season and 11th overall. Just once, in 2007, have they failed to make the final. But that lone semifinal defeat came at the hands of the Bulls in Pretoria.

BULLS

Finish: 1st

Regular season: Won: 10 Lost: 3 Points: 46

Tries scored: 37 (5th)

Tries conceded: 33 (= 6th)

Points scored: 338 (=3rd)

Points conceded: 271 (7th)

Top try scorers: Akona Ndungane, Bryan Habana, Pierre Spies, Wynand Olivier (all 5)

Top points scorer: Morne Steyne (151)

ROAD TO THE FINAL

(Round, result, ranking)

R1, beat Reds 33-20 (h), 1

R2, beat Blues 59-26 (h), 1

R3, beat Lions 16-9 (a), 1

R4, beat Stormers 14-10 (h), 1

R5, bye, 1

R6, beat Hurricanes 19-14 (a), 1

R7, lost to Highlanders 12-36 (a), 4

R8, lost to Crusaders 13-16 (a), 4

R9, beat Waratahs 20-6 (a), 3

R10, lost to Brumbies 31-32 (a), 3

R11, beat Chiefs 33-27 (h), 2

R12, beat Force 32-29 (h), 3

R13, beat Cheetahs 29-20 (h), 1

R14, beat Sharks 27-26 (a), 1

PLAYOFFS HISTORY

Played 5, won 2, lost 3.

Champions: 2007

Beaten semifinalist: 1996 (as Northern Transvaal), 2005, 2006

The first South African team to win the title in 2007, the Bulls are favourites to produce a repeat just two years later. Having been toppled in the semis in '05 and '06, the Pretoria-based franchise enters its fourth finals campaign in five years.

CRUSADERS

Finish: 4th

Regular season: Won: 8 Lost: 4 Drew: 1 Points: 41

Tries scored: 27 (13th)

Tries conceded: 22 (2nd)

Points scored: 231 (13th)

Points conceded: 198 (1st)

Top try scorer: Casey Laulala (4)

Top points scorer: Stephen Brett (47)

ROAD TO THE FINAL

(Round, result, ranking)

R1, beat Chiefs 19-13 (h), 6

R2, lost to Brumbies 16-18 (a), 6

R3, lost to Hurricanes 24-30 (h), 8

R4, lost to Highlanders 0-6 (a), 9

R5, drew with Force 23-23 (h), 11

R6, beat Waratahs 17-13 (a), 7

R7, beat Stormers 11-7 (h), 7

R8, beat Bulls 16-13 (h), 6

R9, bye, 8

R10, beat Sharks 13-10 (a), 8

R11, lost to Cheetahs 13-20 (a), 8

R12, beat Lions 32-20 (a), 6

R13, beat Reds 32-12 (h), 4

R14, beat Blues 15-13 (a), 4

PLAYOFF HISTORY

Played 19, won 16, lost 3.

Champions: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008

Beaten finalist: 2003, 2005

Beaten semi-finalist: 2007

The Crusaders may have considerably more finals' experience than theother three teams put together but their only loss in 10 semifinalscame against the Bulls at altitudein 2007. They are, however, the only team to win the competition on the road, having beaten the Reds in Queensland and the Highlandersin Dunedin to claim their second title in 1999.