KEY POINTS:
Even the best prediction is pretty dire. Just 10 years.
That's how long some English rugby bosses say it will take to drain the talent from New Zealand. Some say it will only be about five years before most of the world's best players are contracted to European clubs.
That's scaremongering, surely? The kind of statement that grabs a headline but doesn't pan out as it was only ever said for effect.
Sadly not. "If you had asked me a year ago, I would have said I couldn't see it," said Chiefs boss Gary Dawson. "But now I don't think that can be discounted.
"We don't have many players leaving this year but we will be hit at some point. The European clubs are more aggressive in their recruiting. It has escalated in the last six months and it is not just players, but coaches and support staff."
It has reached the point where clubs from Wales, England and France now travel here on specific recruitment missions; smash-and-grab raids where the big cheese comes with chequebook, vowing not to leave until he's got the signatures he came for.
And it's escalated to the point where Harlequins chief executive Mark Evans said in the latest edition of New Zealand Rugby World: "In 10 years' time, 20 at most, all of the best players in the world will be playing in Europe.
"If you want to know why, just ask yourself: why would a 22-year-old want to play for the Western Force for A$40,000 (NZ$49,000) a year when he could be earning £200,000 (NZ$504,000) at Stade [Francais, in Paris]?"
Put in those terms, how can anyone argue to the contrary? The average salary in the Guinness Premiership has only risen moderately in the last decade.
The dramatic increases have been at the top end, as club owners in England and France chase the biggest names.
England, especially, is fast-becoming a disparate market. At the core is a phalanx of journeyman professionals who churn through the donkey work, front up in gritty venues and take home not much more than the league's average wage of £62,000 ($156,000) a season.
They slug it out for an honest wage while a small brigade of superstars fill their boots with astonishing bounty. Only about three years ago a recent All Black would have been offered anything from £130,000 to £190,000 a year depending on the club, his age and ability.
Last year a glut of younger players like Aaron Mauger, Carl Hayman and Luke McAlister put themselves on the market and things went crazy.
All Blacks in their prime had never previously been available. Virtually every club wanted in, so the money jumped. Hayman, at a reported £330,000 a season, is one of the best-paid players in the league. Mauger and McAlister are not far behind and even Justin Marshall, at 34, is commanding £200,000 at the Ospreys.
The signatures of those three World Cup All Blacks changed the rugby world overnight. Clubs across Europe suddenly became aware that a perfect storm had crashed into New Zealand.
A raft of players were over Super 14, uncertain about their desire to play test football and aware a rising dollar constrained the New Zealand Rugby Union's financial clout.
That disaffection in New Zealand coincided with an awakening in England and France, where clubs struck robust, workable protocols with their national unions and then agreed improved broadcast deals.
The worry for New Zealand is not purely that these clubs are cashed to the eyeballs, with Toulon having offered Dan Carter $1.4m for six months' work and Nick Evans believed to be on around £400,000 a year at Harlequins. It is that they are now indiscriminate and aggre-ssive in whom they target.
Where once they chased experienced types who were reaching their autumnal years of their career, now they don't care. Young, old, experienced or not, it doesn't matter - the only requirement is they were developed in New Zealand.
In the same way as Volkswagen cars invoke a sense of security and effectively carry a guarantee they can be trusted purely on the basis of who made them, so too do New Zealand's players.
Not only do New Zealanders arrive with a full skill-set, theydon't get pulled away by the national side.
Last month Newcastle Falcons decided to release two of the most promising young backs in England, Toby Flood and Mathew Tait.
Newcastle chairman Dave Thompson, justified the decision to let them go by saying: "The fact that they would miss half of our league games next season has been a major consideration in the decision to allow both Toby and Mathew to move. We felt that the situation had to be addressed for the long-term good of the club.
"We are currently in advanced negotiations with two Super 14 players, and hope to have some positive news to report on that front in the near future."
For club owners, there is every reason to buy Kiwis ahead of local talent and now it seems no one is afraid to state their preference.
In the past it has always felt as if club owners accepted they were obliged to develop home-grown talent for the good of the national game.
That obligation is not felt so keenly now that club rugby is becoming increasingly profitable.
Leicester made in excess of £1m last year, while three times this season Stade Francais have played in front of 80,000 people.
The Premiership has experienced a compound growth rate of 10 per cent since the game went professional and predictions are that it could accelerate. Only three years ago the salary cap was half its current level.
The more a club wins, the more money it makes and policies are far more commercially driven. That means buying the best players regardless of where they come from, which is why more New Zealand players are being approached.
"There does seem to be a bit more of that," said Blues chief executive Andy Dalton to suggestions European clubs are looking to raid New Zealand in an indiscriminate manner. "The money has shot up and dollar for dollar we can't compete.
"Speaking to some of the All Blacks, I know that travel is an issue for them. Some of them find it onerous going to South Africa twice a year.
"So I think it is important that we get the competition structure right in the Southern Hemisphere and create the right environment."
Restructuring is the last hope. There is some hope among executives here that the influx of foreign players into France and England will diminish the ability of their respective national sides and force a rethink on recruiting so heavily off-shore.
It's probably a forlorn hope. Remember, France, with 45 per cent foreign players in their Top 14, beat the All Blacks at the last World Cup, while England made the final.
The statistics also show that for the last 10 years the number of foreign players in the Guinness Premiership has remained at 35 per cent.
"We can't really worry about other countries," said All Black coach Graham Henry on the potential demise of test football in England and France as a result of loading their club teams with Anzacs and South Africans.
"We have to concentrate on what is happening here and it is a challenging environment."
And it will only become more challenging. The European market now has critical mass - an established base of New Zealand players who make it easier for others to follow.
In the early days, there was limited knowledge in New Zealand about the European set-up. Those who went over tended to be the sole Kiwi at their club.
It was tough and many struggled to settle. Now there are New Zealanders in every pocket of England, France, Wales and Ireland.
At Northampton there is Carlos Spencer, Bruce Reihana and Robbie Kydd, at Worcester Greg Rawlinson, Sam Tuitupou and Rico Gear all play together and at Bristol there is a core Kiwi contingent of David Hill, Andrew Blowers and Neil Brew.
There has been an enlightenment across New Zealand about what the European market offers. Where once it was possibly feared, only something to think about as retirement approached, now it feels like everyone wants to get over there sooner rather than later.
Those who say it will take 10 years for Europe to drain New Zealand's talent are probably wrong. It will probably take only five.
