KEY POINTS:
If the Blues follow a decade-long pattern they will employ Lochore Cup-winning coach Paul Feeney, promote Greg Cooper to lead next season's side or invite Waratahs cast-off Ewen McKenzie to take over.
Talk of installing a new coach returned to the fore with the announcement yesterday that David Nucifora will not return to the job next season - nor was such talk premature before the Blues began their mid-competition freefall. Nucifora has been tagged to run the High Performance Unit in Australia for some time and negotiations on the detail in his contract have been rumbling on through this season.
The likelihood of his departure has been clear for some time: his house in Auckland is on the market and when the Blues had their recent bye, Nucifora took the chance to fly across the Tasman for further discussions.
Even if the Blues managed an implausible trip into the Super 14 semifinals and then claimed the title, the franchise would still be looking for a new coach next season.
That sort of unlikely passage would strengthen the upgrade claims of Cooper although a promotion would be unusual for someone "let go" by the Highlanders and then installed at the Blues because he still had several years left on his NZRU contract.
Much has been peculiar about the Blues succession plans since Graham Henry sloped off to Wales after 1998 for his sabbatical coaching stint. Subsequently, the franchise has resisted choosing any head coaches from within the franchise region.
In that decade the Blues have finished 9th, 6th, 11th, 6th, 1st (when Henry returned as technical adviser), 5th, 7th, 8th, 4th and this year they are lumbering along in 8th place in Nucifora's third season in charge.
There is no guarantee that local coaches would have made a difference to that modest record but the longer they are shut out, the more their career paths stopped in New Zealand after the NPC.
The question next month will be how hard the Blues board push their co-NZRU-employer to install a local head coach and what they would do if a search of the global marketplace, discovered someone of the calibre of Jake White wanting the job.
If local is the go then Auckland's Pat Lam must be favoured after winning two provincial titles to go with the coaching experience he picked up with Samoa and Scotland.
There are many, though, who will argue that winning an NPC is vastly different from succeeding in Super rugby, that annexing the NPC might involve four hard matches while each Super game is up another level.
Lam's provincial and NZ Maori assistant Shane Howarth should also be vetted, with Wayne Pivac and Milan Yelavich from Harbour and Mark Anscombe and former Blues assistant Bruce Robertson, who are operating the Northland side.
Sifting candidates will be up to the NZRU and a Blues board, chaired by Greg Muir with franchise chief executive Andy Dalton, provincial chairmen Ken Baguley, Gerard van Tilborg and Wayne Peters and independent members Mike Budd, Grant Fox and Ric Salizzo.
Their predecessors have not distinguished themselves with some choices, starting with the decision to elevate rookie Jed Rowlands to succeed Henry for the 1999 season. It was a bold but ill-advised scheme as Rowlands himself later conceded he was the least qualified from the group of Mac McCallion, Maurice Trapp and John Boe who sought the role.
Former All Black selector Gordon Hunter was then drafted in to coach in 2000 with Hurricanes reject Frank Oliver before Oliver took over belatedly the next year with John Kirwan as his sidekick when Hunter's ill-health meant he could not continue.
Those seasons with outsiders picking teams brought modest results and then in 2002, Peter Sloane who had been an All Black and Crusaders assistant and Highlanders coach, came north. In four years with a mix of assistants such as Fox, Robertson
and Schmidt, the best return was the 2003 title.
Nucifora took on that same role in 2005 after being sacked by the Brumbies, but there was no magic bullet then or in subsequent seasons.
Had Warren Gatland hung about he would have been a serious contender while if independent private ownership is allowed to carry the franchise forward, then candidates such as White should be approached.
That is in the area of NZRU central control and given their latest decision to foist the unwanted but contract-bound outsider Cooper onto the Blues, then more curious verdicts may appear next month.
Nucifora goes home to announce decision
Gutsy stuff, quitting while the Blues are overseas. Perhaps David Nucifora felt more comfortable answering questions in Brisbane, city of his birth, where he is preparing the side for tonight's match with the Reds.
Either that or he hoped to provoke the sort of response from the Blues that the Waratahs have produced since they lost their coach, Ewen McKenzie, halfway through their campaign.
Nucifora is a very likeable man - keen sense of humour, strong on detail and preparation - but he has been unable to wring enough out of the Blues in his three seasons in charge.
He may have achieved "significant results", as Blues chief executive Andy Dalton said, but they were not on the field. Nucifora's record of 20 wins and 17 defeats so far is similar to Jed Rowlands, Gordon Hunter and Frank Oliver who rated only about 50 per cent success in their solitary seasons.
Foundation coach Graham Henry had 30 victories, a draw and six losses in three campaigns and Peter Sloane had 30 wins, a draw and 15 defeats in four seasons. Nucifora and the Blues could yet conjure up a come-from-the-clouds playoff role but they will require other results to go their way. It is more likely that he will leave after an unfulfilled tenure. He was not helped by the franchise infrastructure but there were annual selection flaws, a resistance to go to the draft and dramas such as Ali Williams' departure for the Crusaders.
Most conjecture will be that if a coach from within the region is to be appointed, Auckland's Pat Lam will earn the approval. He has had provincial success with talented players using high-risk rugby, but that style has not succeeded in the tougher cauldron of Super 14.
Harbour's Wayne Pivac and Northland's Mark Anscombe will also be considered, with their credentials judged on their progress with less potent athletes. Assistant Greg Cooper will also be interviewed but he may need to put out his coaching CV overseas once the appointments panel goes about its work next month.
