Rugby: Chiefs win only way to avoid trust issue

The Chiefs Hika Elliot crashes into Cheetahs defenders. Photo / Getty Images

Trust is in short supply when it comes to the South Africans. Always has been. First it was their referees back in the day - there was no way we could trust them.

Then it was their waiting staff in hotels. Now it is their administrators. Last year they came up with the nonsense concept of trying to guarantee South African inclusion in an expanded play-off series this year and now they have compromised the preferred Super 15 expansion option to suit their own needs.

Maybe bigger than all this is the question of whether we can trust them in the final rounds of this year's Super 14. There have been some astonishing results out of South Africa on the final weekend in the past. Suspicion lingers, possibly entirely unfairly, about the way some seasons have ended.

In 2005, the Bulls played the Stormers in the final round. The home side had the luxury of playing the penultimate game of the round-robin, the last encounter being the wooden spoon clash between the Sharks and Cats.

So the Bulls knew exactly what they needed to do to qualify. A win and they were in. If they took five points against the Stormers and won by 25 points or more, they would leap the Hurricanes and take third spot - avoiding a semifinal against the Crusaders in Christchurch.

They won 75-14 - was that the inevitable consequence of one team going for bust against another that had nothing to play for?

Or were the Bulls helped? Not in the sense the Stormers didn't try, more that once the Bulls were on top and clearly going to win, did resistance tail off rather alarmingly?

Preposterous? Scandalous? How could such a thing be suggested? Well, it's back to that track record. What reason do we have to trust the South Africans?

A year later and the Bulls again had the advantage of being the last serious play-off contender in the final round. They started the game against the Stormers with a points differential of 32. The Sharks were five points ahead with a differential of 64, the Brumbies also five points ahead with a differential of 57.

The Bulls had to chase the game, score four tries and win by 33 points. They chased the game, scored four tries and won by 33 points. The week before, the Stormers had taken the Sharks to the wire and seven days before that, they toppled the Crusaders, inflicting the eventual champions' only defeat of the campaign.

It is not intended to cast aspersions on the South African teams, they can do that on their own. It is to highlight the importance of the overnight game between the Chiefs and the Bulls.

A victory for the Chiefs and they remain masters of their destiny. The equation will be simple - if they keep winning, they will finish top.

Lose and the Bulls and Sharks hold the keys as, over the next two weeks, they are at home against sides they will fancy toppling. The Sharks face the Highlanders and Waratahs and the Bulls take on the Force and Cheetahs.

The very last game of the round-robin, as fate would have it, will see the Bulls play the Sharks.

Would anyone in New Zealand be comfortable with a scenario where, depending on the outcome of that game in Pretoria, it would be possible for the Bulls and Sharks to finish first and second? Absolutely not.

The worst outcome for New Zealand teams would be to see two semifinals hosted in the Republic. For the Sharks and Bulls, it is the perfect outcome.

There is no question these two sides will be full-blooded when they clash on the final weekend. But will they pick their strongest sides? If a bonus point would keep one side in the top two, will the other kick a late penalty to deny them?

It's never been about out-and-out manipulation or of not trying. It's just that when trust is in short supply, it's been noted that specific outcomes that must be reached in the final round have been met.

It would be best, then, for everyone in New Zealand to wake up and learn that the Chiefs won in Pretoria and not leave themselves in the unfortunate position of being glued to the telly on the morning of May 17.