They are realistically out of the playoffs and probably would have been even had they won this match.
It would have taken a meltdown from the Highlanders in their three remaining matches for the Blues to progress past the round-robin even with a victory in their final Super Rugby match for the season at Eden Park.
But a win would have meant everything. It would have been a first over a New Zealand team this season, and while it broke an extraordinary run of 11 consecutive victories by the Chiefs in this fixture, a draw will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of Umaga and his players.
For the Chiefs, who performed better in their defeat to the Crusaders in Suva last weekend, this was a wake-up call. They will progress past the round-robin, but they will have to do a lot better than this before they can consider going too far past their quarter-final.
Despite having it all to play for they were strangely flat. The mistakes just kept coming, and from those who don't usually make them; Damian McKenzie, Brodie Retallick and so on.
They lost their first two lineouts of the match, and while they battled back to enjoy supremacy in the scrum in this often bad-tempered Battle of the Bombays, they never looked likely until Johnny Faauli's try in the right corner with 13 minutes remaining.
The midfielder's try, from a Chiefs' break-out, levelled the score, but the Blues were controlling territory and possession so well in the drizzle that it seemed it was only a matter of time before Francis would get an opportunity to put the Blues ahead.
The Chiefs again had disciplinary issues - giving away 11 penalties to the Blues' four. It was an area in which the Blues should have capitalised, but Francis missed and the chance was gone.
As has become traditional, the intensity in the contact areas in this match was a step up from anything an overseas team could provide, with Sonny Bill Williams in particular keen to make a statement against his former team.
Wing Rieko Ioane's try from Augustine Pulu's assist gave the home side a handy advantage before McKenzie's angled run to the corner from 40m just on halftime gave the visitors a decent foothold on the match, with Faauli's try getting them on even terms.
Aaron Cruden, who alternated the goalkicking duties with McKenzie throughout, missed the sideline conversion, but a defeat for the Blues would have been especially cruel.
Blues 16 (Rieko Ioane try; Piers Francis 3 pens, con)
Chiefs 16 (Damian McKenzie, Johnny Faauli tries; McKenzie pen, Aaron Cruden pen)
Halftime: 13-8
