Rugby: Brumbies the great Aussie hope in final 14-team race

George Smith is one of the first-rate performers for the Brumbies, who easily look the best team in Australia. Photo / Getty Images

If the final Super 14 trophy is to end up in Australia, there's only one place it will be. Same place as the 2002 and 2004 Super 12 trophies hang out - Canberra.

Force headquarters in Perth is a number of years from needing to construct a trophy cabinet, the spivs in Sydney might get their hopes up a few weeks out from finals time, but the Waratahs won't cut the mustard when it counts, while a mid-table finish for the Reds would be manna from heaven on the back of what they've ended up with in the last few seasons.

THE BRUMBIES

Depth, experience and world-class players. A good foundation from which coach Andy Friend can start working. The Brumbies showed signs of promise in 2009, but lacked that necessary mixture of brilliance and doggedness. Problem solved on both counts in 2010 with Matt Giteau and Rocky Elsom on board.

Stirling Mortlock's influence at international level may be waning, but with the extra big names around him to cop some of the heat for the Brumbies, I'm predicting he'll wreak havoc at various stages of every game he plays in.

Prop Ben Alexander is an improver and with five-star performers such as Stephen Moore, Adam Ashley-Cooper and George Smith, Brumbies supporters should be disappointed with anything less than the title, and shattered if they can't make the semis for the first time since 2004.

THE WARATAHS

They'll be a nuisance for a few teams and more than that for a substantial number, but they come up a fraction shy in the world-class player department.

Former Red Berrick Barnes is a more than useful acquisition, but he is most influential when surrounded by stars. I'm not sure there are many of those in the sky blue.

One imagines hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau has spent every second of the off-season practicing his lineout throws, because if he can get that up to speed, suddenly he comes into the world-class category. If he doesn't, the value of his many other attributes is significantly diminished.

Prop Benn Robinson is the full package but it's the locks and backrowers where New South Wales come back to the pack.

Phil Waugh heads a group of industrious, tough and courageous individuals but every team in the Super 14 has plenty of that type.

Better than fifth would be overachieving.

THE REDS

They axed a coach with a reputation for expansive play and a poor win-loss record, and employed one with a reputation for limited risk-taking, but a reasonable success rate.

Interesting in that the Reds strength is very much in the backs, with the emergence of Quade Cooper and Will Genia as first choice Wallabies.

They'll work well alongside the brilliant Digby Ioane and the experienced and under-rated Peter Hynes while the new chum, NRL premiership player from the Melbourne Storm Will Chambers, could be a great buy.

They will, though, need some ball. That's where coach Ewen McKenzie will earn his keep. If he can create a forward pack of substance, he'll be the first Victorian-born New South Welshman to earn respect from Queenslanders.

Seventh or better should keep the Red army satisfied.

THE FORCE

No Giteau. No hope. No Pretorious, even less hope.

With two of the brightest young stars in Australian rugby, James O'Connor and David Pocock, both playing for the Force, they have some talent. Just not enough.

Even when Matt Giteau was running the show they never threatened the finals. Andre Pretorious was supposed to fill the experience gap left when Giteau went home to Canberra. But he's injured and gone for the season. So, too, are the Force.

Tenth might be optimistic.

PLAYER TO WATCH: DIGBY IOANE

He's been around a while now but, by and large, he's just been teasing.

On the proviso his body does as it's told, 2010 will be the year Digby Ioane demonstrates he is a world-class player.

Injuries have prevented him consistently showing what he is capable of, but given an extended run of game time, the 24-year-old Reds three-quarter can have the same impact as the man he rates his favourite player, Tana Umaga.

Wellington-born, there's no surprise Digby's main man is Umaga, and whether or not there was a conscious attempt when growing up to emulate the former All Black captain, evidence points to them being very similar players.

As a rugby player, if you wanted a straightforward day at the office, you didn't want to mark Umaga. Same story with Ioane - fast, elusive, skilful, good awareness of support players and defends as if he really, really dislikes you.

The Reds will scare a few teams if all Ioane's bits hold together.