Rugby: Blues on brink? Why they should, and must, beat Chiefs

If the Blues can't beat the Chiefs at Eden Park on Friday it's difficult to see when their next win over a New Zealand team will come.

This isn't to heap further pressure on Tana Umaga's men to break their drought against Kiwi oppositing dating back to when they beat the Highlanders in round one of 2016, but there should be an expectation from their supporters that they will win and win well given the form they showed last weekend and the state of the Chiefs so early in the competition.

It's fair to say the Chiefs are not in a good place only two weeks in. They were hammered in the end by the Crusaders, an outfit they dislike more than probably any other, and the injuries suffered in Christchurch will leave them under-strength for the trip north.

Their casualty toll is extreme.

Lock Dominic Bird (shoulder) is out, and so is classy midfielder Charlie Ngatai (knee), who played at fullback at AMI Stadium. Loose forward Mitch Brown and reserve backs Sean Wainui and Marty McKenzie face concussion tests after head knocks against the Crusaders. Outside back Tim Nanai-Williams is gone for the season due to a shoulder injury in pre-season which requires surgery.

They aren't expecting a return from props Kane Hames (illness), Mitchell Graham (leg) and Sefo Kautai (foot), loose forward Tyler Ardron (hand) or utility back Sam McNicol (concussion).

The Blues got through their defeat to the Highlanders relatively unscathed and should get back loose forwards Jerome Kaino and Jimmy Tupou. Their pack fronted well and Kaino's return in particular will help their close-in defence.

Another key development, and possibly a surprise one, is that the Blues look more settled at No10 than the Chiefs.

Bryn Gatland had an almost flawless game in Dunedin and ripped the Highlanders to shreds at one point with a remarkable break up the middle.

The 22-year-old has arrived to the start of the season in superb physical shape and with the sort of composure that served him so well against the British & Irish Lions last year.

Given the firepower outside him, it's easy to understand why defences may not consider him a threat, so for him to engage his running game so effectively stands him and his team in good stead for round two.

Damian McKenzie, on the other hand, made several high-profile mistakes – two of which led directly to tries.

Playing at first-five isn't unusual for McKenzie but he hasn't played a lot of it at this level and it will take time for him to find his rhythm. Compounding matters, perhaps, are the different messages he will be receiving from his coaches.

McKenzie's greatest strength is his off-the-cuff stuff in broken play. After giving up an intercept try deep inside his own territory in the final minutes against the Crusaders, he has been told, for want of a better term, to curb his enthusiasm.

"He's instinctive isn't he, and [with 14 men], he's trying to catch the game," coach Colin Cooper said. "I think that's the learning that probably territory is better when you are [one man] down. I think that's any No10's battle. Remember he has played No10 before, it's not as if it's brand new to him, and he understands that.

"We're all talking with him and working with him."

A loss for either team at Eden Park will likely send them to the bottom of the New Zealand conference. Given the firepower and form in the Blues camp, it should not be them.

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