KEY POINTS:
The Blues have identified the backrow as the main threat in their effort to overturn the Waratahs in Sydney today and maintain their winning streak.
They received a huge filip yesterday when one of that menacing Waratahs unit, blindside flanker Rocky Elsom, withdrew with an injured thigh with his place going to utility forward Dean Mumm and Will Caldwell coming into the side at lock.
While not mortal, that late change will damage the Waratahs balance as their looseforward combination has been right up there with the Hurricanes, Stormers, Blues and Crusaders.
The Phil Waugh, Elsom and Wycliff Palu bloc is a potent blend of power, pace, defence, athleticism and ball-winning ability, an alliance that is proving to be the hub of the Waratahs. They have other exceptional players such as Daniel Vickerman, Lote Tuqiri and Lachie Turner, but there has been a lack of cohesion about their involvement, one an intrusive board grew impatient with this week.
Waugh and Elsom saved the Waratahs against an average Cheetahs side last week while Palu makes the gain line consistently.
So the Blues rejigged their looseforwards, to produce a combo which offered a fascinating like-for-like contest at Aussie Stadium until Elsom's late exit amid suggestions he could be out for a month. No 8 Nick Williams was restricted to a last-quarter run against the Bulls to save him for the bullocking battle with Palu, while the ball-carrying Jerome Kaino and nuggety Daniel Braid are replicas of Elsom and Waugh.
Coach David Nucifora has been exasperated by his side's poor progress in the past month, the product he claims of lenient refereeing and opponents slowing the ball at breakdowns.
That observation has some strength but there has also been an unhealthy streak emerging in the Blues - a lack of collective trust in their ability as a team to break down their opponents. Like the Waratahs, they have been seduced into relying on individual attacks.
The Blues believe tonight will be different, that they will bounce back after the relentless, brutal struggles of facing five South African sides. They know this match will be just as physical but think the Waratahs will bring a constructive attitude which will help the Blues' production.
It is an optimistic theory given the conservatism of the Waratahs, a focus which has not played out well for coach Ewen McKenzie this week. But the Blues need to talk themselves up, they need to kick up a gear.
Their scrum is the envy of many - John Afoa, Keven Mealamu and Tony Woodcock are classy technicians who can start the Blues rolling tonight by shunting the Tahs pack. A tight-five platform will give the Blues' loosies their chance to connect; but playmaker Nick Evans needs to fire. More kicking might be the initial plan to settle the visitors and test the mixed quality of the hosts' counter tactics.
Their hosts may shoot from the same page, looking to induce some messy decisions from fullback George Pisi or his three-quarters, though their kicking will need to improve markedly to create enough pressure.
A Blues victory will consolidate a top-four place and position them strongly before their bye and a final push to make the play-offs. Defeat, which they just escaped on the past two weekends, will plunge them into the sort of anxiety the Waratahs have been dealing with all season.
