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KEY POINTS:
While much of the talk at the start of the Super 14 is whether John O'Neill and Australia will get their way for a Super 15 or 16 in 2011, the number most New Zealanders will be focusing on is 10.
Specifically, which first five-eighths will take over from Dan Carter after his Achilles injury has intervened to keep him out of at least the early part of the All Blacks' Tri Nations schedule.
Stephen Donald, Carter's understudy on the tour of Britain last year, is the obvious - and only - replacement and Donald says he has not yet cemented his place. So there will be plenty of interest in who Donald's back-up will be as there are few obvious contenders.
The Crusaders' Stephen Brett is one such but he is also returning from serious injury and, should he trouble the doctors again, the All Black 10 cupboard looks curiously bare.
Colin Slade, the 21-year-old who deputised so skilfully for Brett during Canterbury's Air New Zealand Cup campaign, has obvious claims for the future but he is new to even this level and any talk of All Black potential may be premature, to say the least. The Blues have Tasesa Lavea and Jimmy Gopperth as the most experienced candidates, although neither has seriously challenged for an All Black place before this; the Hurricanes have the largely untried Willie Ripia and Daniel Kirkpatrick; the Chiefs Donald and Mike Delany and the Highlanders Daniel Bowden and Mathew Berquist.
So perhaps another candidate for 10 could be a number 9 - halfback Piri Weepu, who meets the criteria for experience and coolness under pressure and who is a reliable goalkicker. If that does happen, Weepu will join the thin ranks of halfbacks who have played at first five for New Zealand - Graeme Bachop and Jon Preston being others.
Weepu presumably will not get too much time in that position, although he was noticeably used in the last Air NZ Cup to relieve Kirkpatrick, often for the second half, and new All Black halfback Alby Mathewson is ready to take over at the heel of the scrum.
Ready to take over at the head of the Sanzar pack is Australian rugby boss John O'Neill who says it is highly unlikely the Super 14 series will expand next year and maybe not even when the new broadcast agreement with News Limited is renegotiated for the 2011 season.
O'Neill wants a proposal, to include a 15th team from Japan or the Pacific islands and an expanded finals format, to broadcasters by June 30. But there is uncertainty about what broadcasters would pay for an expanded series in the economic climate and that could end matters.
So most attention will focus on the present - and who is likely to win what is one of the most difficult Super 14s to pick since its inception. The reason for that is that there are so many changes, with a plethora of new coaches and the loss of players of experience. This is the first season the Crusaders will not be coached by Robbie Deans but only those of the gloomiest, glass-half-empty persuasion would imagine the red and black franchise will not continue the Deans philosophy and/or habit of winning.
South Africa's Sharks loom as that country's best bet and, though we say it every year, this really could be the season for the Chiefs. They have a solid-looking pack with some good experience now and an exciting backline.
Most expect the Blues to be challenging strongly for the playoffs and so they should - with one caveat. They have a stinker of a draw, away to the Force and then in South Africa. They have injury problems to experienced players like Rudi Wulf and Ali Williams but, if they can manage the difficult start, they could be in excellent shape at the finish.
The Australian franchises are talking up their chances and, after the Waratahs' appearance in the final last year, they are the choice of most to challenge for the title this year. However, they have a brand new coach and some key players gone - lock Daniel Vickerman, flanker Rocky Elsom, No 8 David Lyons and halfback Josh Valentine, plus long-term injuries to props.
South Africa's Stormers could surprise further this year if they can lose their trademark inconsistency. Fifth last season, they have potentially punishing backs, strong loose forwards with Schalk Burger leading the way. Tight forwards will be the question mark.
The Brumbies are possible bolters - they have recruited Wallaby hooker Stephen Moore from the Reds, winger-centre Clyde Rathbone is back from injury and have lost few. They were rebuilding last year, finishing ninth, but have a new coach this year, established stars like Stirling Mortlock and George Smith are back and players out of form last year - like lock Mark Chisholm and winger-fullback Mark Gerrard - ready to make amends.
SUPER 14 SOOTHSAYING
Most likely champions
Crusaders, Sharks
Contenders
Chiefs, Stormers, Hurricanes, Blues
Middle of the pack
Bulls, Lions, Force
Likely losers
Cheetahs, Highlanders, reds
Surprise strugglers
Waratahs
First games (home side first):
Highlanders vs Brumbies, Force vs Blues, Lions vs Cheetahs, Crusaders vs Chiefs, Hurricanes vs Waratahs, Stormers vs Sharks, Bulls vs Reds
