After the Blues' 29-27 loss to the Hurricanes in Wellington, it might be the Canes who next weekend give not only themselves, but also the Blues a longshot chance of getting ahead of the machine that is the Crusaders.
Right now the Crusaders are on 18 points, the Blues on 13, and the Canes on 12. If the Canes can beat the Crusaders in Christchurch next Saturday night, and the Blues beat the Chiefs at Eden Park on Sunday, assuming no bonus points are earned, the table would read: Crusaders 18, Blues 17, Hurricanes 16 – though the Crusaders would still have a game in hand.
How likely is a Canes win at Orangetheory Stadium? Very unlikely, but hey, a week ago so were Judith Collins' chances of being the leader of the National party.
FEEDING THE FLAME ISN'T ALWAYS EASY
Blues captain Patrick Tuipulotu confirmed what we all saw in Wellington - the Blues didn't have the killer mindset needed for the game from the start. "To be blunt," he told Sky's Ian Smith, "we were a bit flat in the warm-up, and apart from that they managed to put us under pressure."
There was the discomfort of seeing Ngani Laumape being too quick for Beauden Barrett to put the Canes ahead after just three minutes, but the real gulper in the Blues' coaching box must have been the scrum in the 15th minute near the Blues' 22.
A big difference with the 2020 version of the Blues is that the forwards have been committed, tough, and technically correct. So to see the Blues' pack basically disintegrate in the first scrum of the game would have been a nasty surprise for Leon MacDonald and his forwards expert Tom Coventry. Having been involved with championship winning teams at the Crusaders and the Chiefs they both know that without relentless concentration you can't take a Super Rugby title.
IN GOLF THEY SAY YOU DRIVE FOR SHOW, AND PUTT FOR DOUGH. IN RUGBY IT'S THE SAME WITH DEFENCE
There will be some brutal discussions at Alexandra Park this week as Blues defensive coach Tana Umaga addresses defensive failings against the Canes.
Like the Crusaders, the Blues this year have looked to defend from the outside in, but in Christchurch a week ago, and again in Wellington, their defensive lines were slightly off. The genius of the Crusaders on defence is they don't commit so much to driving the opposing attack infield that if the opposing team gets the ball quickly to the outside they can't move out and cover. They rarely get caught napping out wide, as the Blues did in Wellington.
As a player Umaga was one of the best defenders in world rugby, not only because of his strength and ferocity in the tackle, but also because of his ability to read the situation and find the right place to be. He may be making some adjustments to the Blues' patterns this week.
YEP, FIRST-FIVE IS HIS BEST POSITION
Otere Black's misfortune with injury will almost certainly give Beauden Barrett the chance to start at first-five next Sunday against the Chiefs, which should give Barrett the chance to calm down the pretty relentless stream of criticism he's received in recent weeks.
MacDonald has used him at fullback because the juggling of talent in the squad means playing both Black and Barrett adds up better than playing Barrett at 10 and, say, Matt Duffie at fullback.
It may not be much consolation for Barrett, but the claims he's too old, too slow, and not committed enough are a note-perfect echo of what was being said by some in the media about Dan Carter before the 2015 World Cup. Thankfully Steve Hansen and co. selected that team, not journalists, and Carter was one of the All Black stars. Right now I'd suggest that with Richie Mo'unga in sensational form the 2020 All Black selectors have, with Mo'unga and Barrett, the luxury of two No 10s any other test side in the world would grab in a heartbeat.
SECOND-FIVE GETS INTERESTING TOO
Ngani Laumape didn't make the 2019 World Cup squad, basically missing out to Sonny Bill Williams. It wasn't a choice made because the selectors saw any faults in Laumape's game. They just had five contenders for four spots.
Laumape's been, by his dynamic standards, fairly quiet since the Aotearoa competition started. But he was at his explosive best in Wellington on Saturday night, bashing over Barrett the way he did French fullback Maxime Medard at Eden Park in the first test in 2018.
What's also impressive about Laumape is that he also has a skilled, astute kicking game. Given that Jack Goodhue has settled into second-five for the Crusaders as if moving from centre was the most natural thing in the world, the battle for the All Black 12 jersey will be
IN WHAT MOTUMAOHO HAY SHED HAD THEY BEEN HIDING THAT GREAT CHIEFS TEAM WE SAW IN THE FIRST 45 MINUTES? AND WHERE DID THEY GO IN THE LAST 25?
It looked at first as if the problems the Chiefs had had in the first four games of the competition, like a slow start, missed tackles, and giving away penalties at just the wrong moment, had vanished in Hamilton against the Highlanders.
There was real class in the play of men like Lachlan Boshier, whose work at the breakdowns was dynamic, and Damian McKenzie, threatening to tear the Highlanders defence apart every time he touched the ball.
Ahead 31-7 after 45 minutes, who would have dreamed the Highlanders would then score 26 unanswered points and win 33-31 two minutes into extra time? Chiefs captain Sam Cane was gracious in defeat, but looked as bemused and saddened as the local fans we saw staring in disbelief after Mitch Hunt had kicked the winning conversion.
ELON MUSK COULDN'T INVENT A MAN WITH THAT MUCH ENERGY
If one player epitomised the stunning comeback by the Highlanders it was Aaron Smith, who yet again showed why he's the best halfback, not just in New Zealand, but in the world.
It was the perfect touch, after some scorching runs, beautiful passing, and tenacious tackling, that it was his dart and pass that sent in Sio Tomkinson for the try that would win the game. There hasn't been a more exciting 40 minutes in Super Rugby Aotearoa than the second half in Hamilton, and Smith was at the centre of almost every moment of it.