Mike Greenaway: South African teams forced to play musical chairs

Heinrich Brussow's fitness will be a key concern for the Cheetahs. Photo / Getty Images

South Africa's Super 15 teams have never had more to play for. The country's controversial "sixth" team, the Southern Kings, have been guaranteed inclusion in next year's event - at the expense of one of the five franchises that have been constituting the SA challenge since 2006.

The Kings were created by the South African Rugby Union to stimulate ailing rugby in the Eastern Cape, a stronghold of black rugby, and while the political ends are sound, the governing body has not thought through the practical issue of how this team from Port Elizabeth, East London and George are to be accommodated.

Saru banked on Sanzar bailing them out by adding a 16th team to the competition , but CEO Greg Peters has rejected this, saying the format could not be changed until 2016 when the Super rugby deal was renegotiated with broadcasters.

So South Africa has six teams and five spots, and there is a lot of sweating in the Saru boardroom. Will one side be forced out? Will two franchises be forced to amalgamate? Will the franchises - who are showing rare solidarity on this issue - sue Saru?

So much speculation, so much up in the air - except for the thing that the threatened franchises to an extent can control, how they perform on the field.

Never before has it been so important to avoid the wooden spoon. There is an unprecedented need to prove your team are worthy of Super 15 status and actions on the field will speak louder than the boardroom words of CEOs.

Adding intrigue to all of this is the fact that this is the most open South African challenge anybody can recall.

Usually, there are two teams comfortably above the rest that contest the play-offs, a third team destined for mid-table and two bottom-dwellers (the Lions and the Cheetahs) that fight it out for last spot.

This year, there is no obvious stand-out team and no reasonable certainty over who will finish first and last. There has been a levelling out in quality of playing personnel across the five franchises because of an exodus of World Cup Springboks, with the Bulls (champions in 2007, 2009 and 2010) the worst affected.

The Stormers, last year's conference winners, are much of a muchness compared with last year - possibly a little weaker after losing a few key players.

The Bulls, who finished an uncharacteristic seventh last year, will probably finish around about there again after replacing jaded veterans with hungry but inexperienced youngsters.

The Sharks earned a wild card into the play-offs last year and this season have better all-round depth and will challenge strongly for the conference top spot, the Lions surely will take some of their Currie Cup winning momentum on to the Super rugby stage and finish substantially higher than last year's 14th, and the Cheetahs' first-choice, fully-fit starting XV will compete with the best but if they pick up injuries, which is inevitable in such a long competition, they could end up at the bottom of the conference.

For the Stormers, it remains to be seen if backroom analyst Rassie Erasmus' departure is significant, and there will be a questions over how badly the franchise will be affected by the departure overseas of key men in centre Jaque Fourie and openside flanker Francois Louw.

The Bulls are starting over after losing the backbone of their team, and cannot be expected to immediately flourish.

Lions coach John Mitchell is too experienced and astute to let the team squander their Currie Cup success and even if Super 15 is a big step-up, the Lions for the first time have self-belief.

The Cheetahs were crowd pleasers last year because of their ability to score tries from anywhere on the park, but their defence was not of the same standard.

If Juan Smith and Heinrich Brussow can stay fit to complete the loose trio with Ashley Johnson, the Cheetahs will be competitive.

The Sharks at last have consistency at 10 in Patrick Lambie and with Frederic Michalak at 9 they have one of the most exciting combinations in the competition.