Back in March, when it was clear the season was heading for the toilet, I wrote a column saying Kirwan could yet be retained because the Blues were a long-term fix and, woefully, there were precious few candidates who might make a difference and/or who would take it on.
The Blues board meets tomorrow to consider a replacement. They obviously have someone in mind after closing the door on Kirwan's Blues career.
Whoever they open it to (and Tana Umaga is popularly predicted to be waiting outside) will not just have a strategy-selection-execution job to do on the rugby field. The weights strapped to the Blues' legs and which drag them down in the tide of Super Rugby are still there.
Their record — no title for 12 years now and only one appearance in the playoffs in the last eight — dissuades ambitious players from joining. The development system has largely failed to find the right players in the right positions or to keep them after development.
That leads to a perception which goes something like this: "Stay away!"
That is particularly so at first five-eighths, where some of the cream have declined to join the Blues' curdled milk. Current players may be waiting to see what happens with the new coach before deciding on their future.
Add the fact some key talent is disappearing — Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Luke Braid, Charles Piutau and others — and the biggest gaps (other than No10, although Ihaia West looks promising) are at hooker, prop, flanker and wing ... vital positions.
The Blues are also off to a multi-million dollar facility at Alexandra Park, only emphasising the separation within this franchise. Auckland have a rugby academy, so do North Harbour and the two unions have never properly integrated.
When the Blues are at Alexandra Park, Auckland rugby will still be at Eden Park. OK, you don't need to live together to communicate and operate smoothly in this modern world (and there are moves to end the board and union disparity) — but it begs the question of togetherness and unity of purpose.
Whoever takes the keys to JK's car will inherit all that, worn rings, smoky exhaust pipe and all, just as he did. It's a massive handicap and it seems unlikely that a coach — even one with the mana of Umaga — can mend things in one season.
I shall be delighted to be proved wrong and acknowledge it is possible to turn things around in that period. The Hurricanes did it this year, the Highlanders last year, with the right confluence of coaching team, attitude, young or motivated players and senior statesmen.
However, neither faced the systemic problems Kirwan and the Blues have. The strong likelihood is the Blues will not be Super Rugby giants in 2016 — and the last par of my column in March will still apply: "It doesn't matter whether the coach is Sir John, Sir Graham [Henry] or the archangel Gabriel — Blues rugby is still a long-term fix."
Now it is a question of whether the new coach is able to do what the last one couldn't — take the team to a place which persuades players and fans the fix is a real, concrete thing or, at the very least, is visible on the horizon.