Most people will have written the Highlanders off before they take the field tonight in Hamilton.
Can they beat the Chiefs? Of course they can, it's a two-horse race and the Highlanders have enough quality, but there's no doubt that beating the Chiefs in Hamilton has become the Everest of Super Rugby - the toughest place to travel to and win in New Zealand.
You used to say that about the Crusaders in Christchurch but some shocking things have been going on there lately: the Rebels won there on the opening weekend and recently the Chiefs, Hurricanes and even a 13-man Sharks team have breached that former fortress's walls.
There are cracking match-ups all across the field tonight that could have a bearing on the result - half and midfield to name just two areas - but for me, the hopes of the Highlanders hinge to a large degree on the man at the back.
Ben Smith has probably played his best rugby for the All Blacks on the wing, but for the Highlanders his outstanding qualities shine through at fullback. He is extremely dangerous at the back and is, usually, well-utilised.