South Africa are kidding themselves if they think their tough stance on the Super 14 will benefit them.
I don't think they will carry through their threat of leaving Sanzar and setting up shop with teams from Scotland, Ireland, Argentina and maybe the USA.
That's because they are consigning their fans to a future they won't like - without much contact with New Zealand teams, still their greatest rivals.
South Africa are striking a tough pose because they have a lot of money in their wallets already from the TV deal they stitched up with the Currie Cup.
They are insisting they will not compromise the Currie Cup by giving in to New Zealand demands to start the Super 14 later in the year - as that would break into Currie Cup scheduling. They also want a new, sixth franchise to make up a Super 15.
If they don't get what they want, they are threatening to leave Sanzar and play with this other mob instead, real or imagined.
They certainly have clout because they provide the majority of the Super 14 broadcasting fees. Even if they carry through the threat, I wouldn't expect it to last and I wouldn't think they'll benefit from it.
They will undo all the work they have done in the past decade or so, getting up to speed after their long isolation from world rugby because of apartheid.
There can be no denying that South African rugby has come right up the scale in recent times because of their exposure to All Black and Wallaby teams, not to mention those of the Northern Hemisphere.
Their fans also love the rivalry with New Zealand and they turn out to watch the New Zealand franchises when they are in the Republic and watch the tour matches on TV.
There's another consideration. In theory, the other Sanzar partners have the All Blacks and the Wallabies to bargain with.
I wonder how keen the South Africans would be on this course of action if they were, for example, made to do without meeting the All Blacks until World Cup year.
There's only one way to deal with someone throwing their weight - or the size of their wallet - around and that's to use the weight of numbers.
We are seeing this happen - or not happen - in cricket right now, where India is bullying the rest of the world because they control vast broadcasting money coming into the game, tied to the enormous Indian TV population.
But if the world's other cricket countries united and set out to impose themselves, the Indians would in theory have no one to play with except maybe a few toadies.
But the rugby world doesn't seem to have much unity these days and everyone is scared of missing out on the money they need to afford the running of the professional game.
It's sad and it's damaging for the game. Widening the Super 14 to a Super 15 doesn't appeal to me. The Australians would struggle to embrace another franchise - the Reds are only just starting to come right after the Force were introduced and it would spread Australia's players too thin.
As for South Africa, only the Sharks and the Stormers (sometimes) have performed in the past although the Bulls are doing well so far this year. As for the Lions, the Cheetahs and the Cats, well, all you can do is look at the fact that they are all some sort of pussies.
It's also ironic that South Africa want the East Cape area to be their sixth franchise as this is the fastest-growing black rugby area - politics again. Yet they didn't want the Maori to tour because they were a racially selected team.
And, if you drop down to a Super 12, with Australian, New Zealand sides, possibly bolstered by teams from the USA and Japan - well, whoopty-do... You can't tell me rugby fans will enjoy that more than playing against South African sides.
Whatever the answer is to rugby's problems, you get the feeling it isn't in what we have just discussed. The only benefit I can see accruing from what is being proposed is to the coffers of South African rugby - and maybe not even then.
However, I will say one thing about what the South Africans are doing - I wish the NZRU would protect and nurture our national provincial rugby competition the way the South Africans are. Ours is pretty much ruined.
<i>Richard Loe</i>: Wallet politics set to inflict damage
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