Richard Loe: Playoffs may lack a New Zealand team

Reds coach Ewen McKenzie. Photo / Getty Images

We could be looking at a repeat of 2001 when no New Zealand teams made the Super rugby playoffs.

I'm certainly not confident - or at least I wouldn't bet the farm - on any of our sides making it through.

Before they headed offshore, the Crusaders were sitting just where they wanted to be. Now they have lost two in a row and I can't see them beating the Bulls in Pretoria next weekend.

With their confidence down and the travel factor to consider, I think they will also find it difficult to come home and beat the Brumbies in their final game.

The Hurricanes have improved in recent weeks but, again, I can't see them winning both of their last two games. They might win one, but not two.

I would back the Stormers and Bulls to make it and I think the Reds will, too.

They have been a revelation this year and I was talking to Laurie Mains the other day about why he thought that was.

He felt that coach Ewen McKenzie was a significant factor. Here's a guy who was let go by the Waratahs. He then went to Stade Francais in Paris and was pushed out of there early and now he's with the Reds, just desperate to prove himself and he's doing that.

I'm just not sure about fourth place. I suppose there is a scenario that says the Crusaders could take it if they pick up six points in their next two games.

The Hurricanes could win their final two games and sneak in there, but it is a big ask for both teams.

I will take my hat off to either or both of them if they pull it off, but my gut feeling is that the All Black coaches will have all their players available earlier than they expected.

And that may be a blessing in disguise. If none of the Kiwi teams make the playoffs, the All Blacks will have two weeks of extra preparation time - something they will probably need.

I have said for a while now that I have concerns about the homogenised coaching environment. I'm not sure we have enough variation across our teams and I still feel like the key words so often used by coaches - communication and reaction - are nowhere near as sharp as they need to be.

The Reds and Stormers spent their off-seasons working around the tackled ball, analysing the new interpretations and coming up with ways to adapt. They have been ahead of the game in this regard.

The South African sides especially have been adept at working what I would call a driving maul, rather than a rolling maul and again our sides have been slow to adapt.

You would imagine the Springbok pack will be mainly a blend of Stormers and Bulls players and that they will have considerable firepower. We have to be able to match that and extra preparation time will be handy.

The scenario that the All Black coaches will really not be keen on, is the Crusaders qualifying in fourth place and having to jump back on a plane to South Africa after just one week at home. That will be tough, yet there is nothing that can be done about it.

If that happens, you couldn't rule out the Crusaders winning a semifinal in Cape Town - even though they were well beaten there in the round-robin - and then heading up to Pretoria.

They have done it the hard way in the past and, if they manage it again, you can be sure many of their players will be rested for the first, or maybe even the first two tests of the year.