Richard Loe: Hurricanes tipped to edge Blues

The good wins by the Blues and the Hurricanes - and their closeness on the Super 14 table begs the question: who will win their vital round 12 clash on May 1?

They are only a point apart on the table now, both bidding for semifinal places, but while the Blues might have a better run-in and an easier game in round 11, I'm going for the Hurricanes.

I think they will have a little too much up front. If you look through both teams, I fancy the Hurricanes to have an edge.

Okay, the Blues were much, much better at the breakdown against the Highlanders but they wouldn't want to drop much below that level against the Hurricanes as they are pretty physical themselves.

I think the Hurricanes might have an edge in the scrums, even though Tony Woodcock clearly boosted the Blues. And I like the combination of Rodney So'oialo, Scott Waldrom, Victor Vito, Karl Lowe and Fafili Levave.

I think they have more depth and mongrel in that loosie line-up, compared to the Blues. I acknowledge that Jerome Kaino and Josh Blackie are going well but Kaino, for example, has been known to be a bit inconsistent.

Waldrom could be a key. There isn't much of him but he cuts players down at the ankles and he sure scavenges that ball. That area could decide the match.

I think that 8-9-10 axis works better for the Hurricanes (when Piri Weepu is there) than the Blues. Alby Mathewson is a better halfback than Taniela Moa, I'd say.

The Hurricanes could have run up a big score last night. They got the bounce of the ball for Cory Jane's try and that of Tamati Ellison but I thought refereeing decisions didn't go their way. Big lock Jeremy Thrush (he's pushed Jason Eaton back to No 2) could have had two tries. There wasn't much wrong with Vito's disallowed try, either.

The Blues have strike power out wide but they have to get the ball there first. The Hurricanes have a better midfield and those two tries scored by Ma'a Nonu couldn't have been scored by anyone else and he would have scored them against anyone - including the Blues.

I have only two reasons for hesitation. The Hurricanes are not quite hitting their straps and that could cost them against the Blues. Their lineout was awful last night.

If the Blues get Ali Williams back, that could change matters. Based on this weekend's play, I'll tip the Hurricanes.

They have similar finishes - the Canes play the Brumbies and the Blues at home, the Chiefs away and finish away to the Reds. The Blues have the Reds at home, the Hurricanes and the Brumbies away and finish at home to the Crusaders. Hard to pick who'll end up on top after that lot ... maybe they'll both make the playoffs.