Richard Loe: Crusaders will be a force next season

Even if I'm wrong and the Crusaders lose to the Blues on Saturday, they have already had a successful season.

The Crusaders have such an inexperienced side that, even if they fall short of the playoffs, they have given their young blokes invaluable, pressure-cooker experience.

If they make the playoffs, they might not win the Super 14, as they might not yet have the arsenal to foot it with the best this year - although I could be wrong about that, too. But watch out next year. They will be a real force.

They are losing only Leon MacDonald. A big loss, sure, as he has really played well in the second half of the season but losing only one of their experienced guys will see them really settled and a much more dangerous unit next season.

However, I think they will beat the Blues and make the playoffs if they can manage a bonus point. The Auckland-based outfit won't have Ali Williams back and their loose trio just doesn't look in the hunt at the moment; plus they have little to play and this is a side which has often wilted under pressure.

I think the Crusaders will dust off their best defence and let the Blues continue with their helter-skelter style, let them make the errors and hit them on the counter. When the Crusaders have the ball, they will show us more of what they demonstrated against the Reds.

The forwards kept the ball, used it in short-passing rushes and manoeuvred the defence out of it- just like in the try to Ben Franks.

My only hesitation is that this was a woeful Reds side and the Crusaders, once they had done enough to win the game, went off the boil. The Blues will likely still be depleted but they could well plug the gaps in their horrible defence for one game.

If that happens, matters could go close but I'm looking at the second rows and loose forwards and, with Richie McCaw back on the job, I can't see the Blues winning where it counts.

All right, they still have fast and dangerous men out wide but the Crusaders are putting a real team together. Look at Ryan Crotty and Tim Bateman in the midfield.

They were barely known before this season - although I have remarked in the past on how much Bateman resembles former All Black Warwick Taylor at times - but they have started to form a real partnership.

My only other worry is first-five Stephen Brett. He is not playing as well as he can and three of his kicks went badly wrong on Friday - one leading to a try. Still, if he gets those kicks coached out of him this week, he could snap back into form.

The key will be winning with a bonus point. They did it against the Lions and Reds but the Blues - even depleted - will be tougher.

They could come unstuck - and then they will rue the rotation and the mindset that saw them lose to the Cheetahs three weeks ago. Just goes to show you that rotation can be an evil thing. If you rest players, you can also make the subconscious suggestion that it should be an easy match against a weaker team. It is amazing how many times that little seed of overconfidence takes root in the mind and blooms into an unexpected loss.

Even selecting the big boys on the bench doesn't work - as the momentum has often gone by the time they get into the match and they can't wrench it back. Rotation sometimes has a lot to answer for.

I still think the Crusaders will do it against the Blues - but it would be helpful if the Waratahs do the business against the Sharks overnight, while the Brumbies, who could also pip the Crusaders, have a hard final match against the Chiefs.